Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/11

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Baker Mayfield Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I get the sense that the Bucs are the right side tonight, but I don’t want to lay an awkward number of 4.5 points so I’ll turn to the prop market instead. Baker is set to get a lot of weapons back tonight, namely Mike Evans, and that’s going to force the Atlanta defense to account for a lot of talent out there running routes. If the Falcons are dropping a lot of players into coverage, that will open up running lanes for Baker to take off.

There was a lull in his rushing production this season as he dealt with injury, but it’s back up to early season levels lately with 31.8 yards per game the past 4 weeks. The way to beat Atlanta is on the ground anyway, as their rush defense EPA/play sits 26th in the league and they’ve allowed the 24th-most yards this season. Back in Week 1, Baker took off 5 times and put up 39 yards on the ground, so I think the matchup favors him clearing this total tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/New Orleans Pelicans Over 239.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Gulf Coast Sports

This total has been climbing and I think there’s plenty of good reason for that. These teams are tied for the second-most overs cashed on the season with 15 apiece, so high-scoring games are nothing unusual for either of them. That includes a month ago when they met in New Orleans and put 242 points on the board, but a few things have changed since then that I think could mean even more points tonight.

First is personnel, as the Blazers have lost their two best rim protectors since that game which is important against a Pelicans team that is 3rd in two-point rate this season. If the Pels can rack up easy inside buckets, it will help compensate for a defense that has totally collapsed and is allowing 125.5 PPG since that first meeting. Portland is a bottom-third defense too no matter how you look at it and plays at the third-fastest tempo, so I think plenty of points are coming in this one.

NBA (1 Unit) Russell Westbrook Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I can’t believe we’re still two weeks from Christmas and the season’s Nuggets/Kings series has the fourth meeting tonight. Oh well, I would’ve been waiting impatiently for it anyway so I can bet Westbrook to have another big game against his former team. He truly gets up for this matchup, posting a double-double in all three prior meetings this season with an average of 38.3 on this combo prop.

Sacramento’s injury situation is getting Westbrook starter minutes lately, and we’ve seen him take advantage with a vintage Russ triple-double on Monday, his second triple-double in 5 games. With the added motivation of facing his former team, and a very high total in this game, I think Russ is able to stuff the stat sheet again tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If you want to bet Jokic on his points+rebounds+assists number of 52.5, I can’t blame you here. The Kings have no answer for him, and he’s stuffed the box score with 55, 57, and 64 PRA in the three meetings. But if you don’t have access to PRA props, or if you’re looking for the most consistent angle, points is the way to go. His early season scoring woes are long over, and he has lit up the Kings for 44, 35, and 34 points while rebounds and assists have fluctuated, so I think he goes off against a really bad defense again.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa Team Total Under 65.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FS1

My Cyclones are dangerous, on both ends of the court, but I think it’s defensively where they shine tonight. They just held Purdue, the top offense by adjusted efficiency in the whole country, in their own building, to just 58 points. That’s astounding, doesn’t matter how you look at it, but don’t expect any letdown in this game since it’s the Cy-Hawk rivalry.

The ISU defense now ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency, and while Iowa is an efficient offense they’re just painfully slow. So I don’t see the Hawkeyes having enough opportunities to put up points against this elite defense, one that is similar to Michigan State’s which held Iowa to 52 points in their only true road game so far. Hilton is going to be wild, and ISU’s interior size combined with perimeter pressure should shut down the Hawkeyes and hold them under this number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 34-30 (+3.07 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.