Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/10

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

Surprisingly I think the Suns can hang in this game, staying somewhat competitive with the wrecking ball that is the one-loss Thunder. But if they do, it’ll have to be because they keep pace with the OKC offense that has gone nuclear lately, coinciding with the return of Jalen Williams to the lineup. This offense was already good, topping tonight’s team total in about half of their non-overtime games before Williams came back.

But in the 5 games since he returned they’re 5-0 over this number with 126.6 PPG on average, including dropping 123 on the Suns in his debut. The team that’s already 3rd in shooting percentage has bumped that up to 53.7% in those 5 games, coming against some quality defenses and spots where the Thunder were shorthanded. In this spot where the league’s eyes are on OKC tonight, I think they make a statement and put up a big number.

NBA (1 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/LA Lakers Over 238 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Apparently the whole market was waiting on news about Victor Wembanyama’s status before jumping in on the total. Him being announced out pushed this number up a few points, and I think with good reason.

His defensive presence, especially against a team like the Lakers without much interior threat, is a big deal, as Spurs games since his injury have been averaging 239.4 PPG. The Spurs are not short on offensive weapons, but they’re going to need them tonight as the Lakers are a scoring machine and will be even more against a weakened defense. LA is a top-3 shooting team no matter how you slice it, and importantly lead the league in two-point percentage so no Wemby to patrol the paint is key.

The Lakers are also 10-0 to the over at home this season, which includes the first meeting between these teams that saw 234 points with Wemby in but Austin Reaves and LeBron James out. Reversing that player availability for this one should make for plenty of scoring by both teams to clear this total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Luka is a cheat code, going absolutely scorched earth this season with 35.0 PPG. That includes 30-plus in 8 straight games and an average of 38.1 in home games on the year. This is a showcase spot against a weak defense, with his supporting cast all playing to take defensive attention away from him, so I think he goes off again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Minnesota @ Purdue -11.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on BTN

Purdue really hates losing, which is probably too obvious to say, but it’s important because they tend to bounce back really well. They’ll look to do that tonight after getting absolutely boat raced by my Cyclones over the weekend, and Gopher fans might want to batten down the hatches for this one. The past two seasons, when Purdue has a home game directly following a loss, they tend to dominate and dominate early.

The first halves of those games have averaged a 16.1-point margin in favor of the Boilermakers, covering this number in 5 of the 7 instances. This will likely be a slower-paced game, but one where Purdue’s shooting and efficiency play a big role in them pulling away early. Purdue is still the country’s top offense by adjusted efficiency, and are 13th in three-point percentage. A Minnesota defense that is 309th in three-point percentage allowed will likely see a barrage of three’s, and splashing those will allow the Boilers to run it up in the first half here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) VCU Team Total Over 82.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This VCU offense gets a very favorable matchup here as New Mexico comes to Richmond, and while I’m not sure they can cover a large number, I do think we’ll see points. Both teams are going to play fairly fast, so the Rams will get extra possessions to leverage a key advantage they have over the Lobos. That’s from beyond the arc, where VCU shoots it extremely well and very frequently in Phil Martelli Jr’s system.

New Mexico happens to allow the 6th-highest split of points in the country to come via the three-ball, but they’ve yet to face an offense that can splash it the way VCU can. The Rams have been very efficient at home this season, averaging 1.237 points per possession that has produced 91.3 PPG, and I think they clear this team total again as a result.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Houston First Half Team Total Over 44.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m surprised by this number and by the pricing, so given Houston’s tendency towards first half dominance and Jackson State’s futility, I have to look over here. The Cougars will dominate this game, there’s no question about that, as the Fertitta Center is tough for anyone to walk into much less a terrible team. Jackson State checks in at 316th in KenPom, and Houston has faced two other opponents outside the top-300 of those rankings, dropping 44 and 47 first half points.

But there’s just something special about the Tigers, who have visited 4 premier programs this season and been run out of all 4 buildings. It has started right away, giving up 60, 55, 55, and 47 first half points on their way to ridiculous beatdowns. In recent memory it’s tough to think of a team more dominant in first halves at home than Houston, and I think they take advantage of JSU’s complete lack of transition defense. That’s something the Coogs tend to do more early than late, so I’ll focus on the first half for them to put up a massive number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 35-28 (+3.62 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.