Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/27

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Tiny Turkey Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+4): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Eating rules don’t apply on Thanksgiving, so neither do Wong Teaser rules and I’m teasing the Lions through zero today. I just don’t see them losing this game, and even if they did it would one that comes down the wire, so getting more than a field goal worth of points on the other side is worth it. Dan Campbell just doesn’t miss when it comes to getting revenge, and the Lions are out for some today after looking terrible at Green Bay to start the season.

That game was an anomaly in this series, as the Lions are on a 12-4-1 ATS run against the Packers. I’m also convinced that Detroit was looking past the Giants last week to this game, and since they didn’t cover that one, the trend of Campbell going 19-5-1 ATS the week after failing to cover comes into play. Look for a Detroit win here, but I’ll buy some insurance with this teaser play.

KC Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys (+10.5): 3:30 PM CT on CBS

As a Cowboys fan, I’m worried about this game. Patrick Mahomes is in a fairly rock-solid situational spot here as he’s 19-3 straight up in short rest games, as well as 14-2 straight up indoors in his career. Road favorites on Thanksgiving are also 25-1 straight up since 2004, part of a bigger domination by favorites on turkey day of 51-9 straight up overall the past 20 years.

But this version of the Chiefs, with their difficulties in close games this season, are not walking out of Dallas with a win by double digits. That’s simply not who they are anymore, evidenced by last week’s tough and tight game against the Colts, where teasing to this exact number paid off. This is a desperation spot for both teams, and I just don’t see it being anything other than a tight one that proves the short spread correct.

Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens Under (58.5): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I get it, Joe Burrow is back to lead this high-powered offense, and you want to cheer for points as you force-feed yourself another plate. Don’t fall for it, as I think this game could shape up as a dead under given what we’ve seen from both teams lately. For one thing, a Bengals home game went under last week against a high level offense, so Cincy totals are definitely inflated.

But how sharp will Burrow be after maybe a week of practice, when he’s always starting slowly anyway. The last time we saw him for a full game he was barely beating Cleveland in Week 1, and today he’ll be missing Tee Higgins. On the other side, Lamar Jackson is obviously not healthy, and this Ravens offense is highly dependent on his legs to be explosive, even against the league’s worst defense. This high of a total is just too much, and I think we see the high-scoring trend between these squads slow down tonight.

Bonus Thanksgiving NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Christian Watson Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (+110)

0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mark Andrews Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mitchell Tinsley Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (+110)

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNC/Michigan State Under 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on FOX

This should be a fantastic matchup if you want something on the second screen while watching the Cowboys game. But it’s an underrated defensive matchup, as most people see two brand-name programs with good offenses and want to bet the over. These teams have significant defensive advantages though, as both teams are looking to play through the post on offense but will struggle to today.

UNC brings the country’s best two-point percentage defense, while Michigan State ranks 42nd, so two teams without a ton of outside shooting will run straight into the teeth of the opposing defenses. I think that and a high-stakes meeting between two undefeated squads will help keep the scoring down.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Western Kentucky/South Florida Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This game is about pace, pace, and more pace which will justify the high total here. These are two of the country’s top-25 teams in terms of adjusted tempo, with South Florida also being 8th for shortest offensive possession length. But we’re not looking at two jump-shooting teams here, as WKU ranks 357th  and USF 251st in three-point percentage.

They both get their points by attacking the rim and getting to the free-throw line, two much more reliable ways to lengthen a game and pad scoring. With both defenses struggling to slow teams down inside and keep from fouling, I think we see a layup line and parade to the stripe which sends this game over this big total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke -10.5 vs Arkansas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBS

Duke might be the best team in the country, and it’s amazing that nobody seems to be talking about them despite it being, ya know, Duke basketball. They’ve sort of quietly disposed of both top-tier opponents they’ve faced so far, beating Texas by 15 and Kansas by 12 on neutral floors. So getting Arkansas on a neutral here, with a number the Blue Devils are used to covering, is attractive for me.

Duke has been incredibly dominant inside so far this season, and should be able to flex that strength against a smaller Razorbacks team tonight. The Hogs have not shown me any consistency so far this season against a very weak schedule, sort of typical for early season Calipari teams. So I don’t think they can handle the talent and early cohesiveness that Duke has shown, and will get run out of United Center tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 36-27 (+8.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.