Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/26

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/OKC Thunder Over 226.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Thunder offense is waking up, and that’s a scary proposition. OKC was winning, dominantly in most cases, just on the basis of their defense for most of this season, but now they’ve started showing their offensive potential. We all knew it was there, but the crazy runs that have highlighted their dominance in recent years are showing up now. I think that spells trouble for a Wolves team that is showing uncharacteristic defensive lapses, especially on the road.

But Minnesota is going to get their offense together at some point here, and they’ve definitely played well in NBA Cup games like this, so I see scoring success from both squads. I’m afraid to admit it, but we might also be looking at the potential of a blowout over coming into play if OKC gets on top of the Wolves tonight, and that scenario unfolding makes this lower total much too light.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Russell Westbrook Over 27.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Westbrook has seen his minutes increase significantly as he enters the starting lineup, and that’s the big key here. Give him work and he’ll stuff the stat sheet, as just a 5 minutes per game increase from October to November has seen him go from averaging 20.4 on this prop to 29.8 this month. And a starter’s role has really made the difference, as those 12 games have seen him put up an average of 30.6 PRA. With Domantas Sabonis still out, Russ has to take over the do-it-all role vacated by the Kings center, and I think he continues to produce in all categories tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St John’s/Auburn Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on truTV

St John’s and their crazy up-tempo style has been wrecking totals at this event, and I think there’s another one coming tonight. The Red Storm aren’t the only one rewarding over bettors though, as Auburn enters this game a perfect 7-0 to the over on the season. The Tigers are a relatively up-tempo squad, but their defense has been an issue all season, punctuated by giving up 102 to Michigan last night.

Against a St John’s team that just keeps attacking downhill, I’m expecting that Auburn defense to struggle again. But the Tigers should be able to keep pace behind the country’s 20th-best offense by adjusted efficiency, and this kind of meaningless showcase game should have lessened defensive effort and be more of a layup line.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alabama -13.5 vs Maryland (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 11:00 PM CT on TNT

Alabama did not like losing to Gonzaga the other day, and the bounce back we saw last night should carry over into this game. I just don’t think we’re fully appreciating the talent of this Tide squad, who have played an absolute gauntlet of a schedule. It’s not even Thanksgiving yet and Alabama has played 4 games against teams in the top-15 of KenPom rankings. When they’ve faced anyone else, like Maryland tonight, they’ve run them out of the building.

I don’t think the Terps have the horses to run with Alabama here, or the kind of post players who can step out and guard the stretch bigs that will be bombing away from deep. Maryland comes into this game really struggling to stop the three-ball, ranked 267th in opponent three-point percentage, and allowing the 15th-highest percentage of points to be generated from beyond the arc. That is music to Alabama’s ears, and if they’re connecting from deep this will turn into a runaway so I’ll lay the points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 38-28 (+9.05 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.