Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

I think the total in this game overall is being held down by uncertainty around the status of Paul George, Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey, but it seems that Embiid is the only real question mark tonight. These teams are more than capable of creating another high-scoring start without some key stars available, as fairly shorthanded versions put up 61 first quarter points in their first meeting this season.

The Sixers are obviously going to struggle to defend early on, as they’re still 29th in first quarter points allowed at home this season. And the Magic are not the defensive juggernaut that they’re perceived as, sitting just 17th in first quarter points allowed and playing much better offense so far this year. While this number is skewed to adjust for first quarter craziness from Philadelphia, I still think these teams can clear it with some stars returning to show out in a national TV game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Baylor/St John’s Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on truTV

After getting into a shootout with my Cyclones yesterday, I think St John’s will be back for more fast-paced and high-scoring basketball today. They can’t seem to help themselves, as their up-tempo style keeps creating shootouts despite solid defensive numbers. The Red Storm are good defensively on a per-possession basis, but when you create so many extra possessions the scoring simply has to increase. That’s something I’m not sure is quite reflected in this number, and Baylor should be able to take advantage.

The Bears are just an all-around solid offense, not elite at anything specific but very good at everything. Much like Iowa State yesterday, I think they’ll go along with the up-tempo style created by SJU, and with the country’s 19th-best offense by adjusted efficiency they should be able to score well today. But Baylor also brings a big weakness that will ramp up scoring, as they have a lot of trouble defending inside. That’s where SJU wants to attack with their extremely quick offensive possessions, and I think it helps pile up enough points to clear this big total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC San Diego PK vs Bradley (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN2

What a great name for this tournament: “Terry’s Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational – Adventure Bracket” makes it so easy to love Feast Week. This game makes it easy for me to love UCSD, as I think they’re a little undervalued against an overvalued Bradley squad. Yesterday’s action saw Bradley run out Princeton with some insane shooting that just isn’t sustainable, not against a good defensive team that makes you work on every possession.

And the Braves won’t have the luxury of the opponent going cold like Princeton did, as the Tritons bring the country’s 8th-best effective field goal percentage into this game. Bradley was initially lined as the short favorite today but that was quickly corrected by smart money, and UCSD is now the favorite in many places so grab this pick-em price with the sharp side that happens to be 4-0 ATS this season.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota St +1.5 vs Utah Valley (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on FloCollege

Here’s another team that’s 4-0 against the number but not lined accordingly in my opinion. The Jackrabbits have been excellent again this season, hanging tough with opposition much better than they’ll see in Cancun today. There’s one big mismatch in this game and it heavily favors South Dakota State who should dominate inside against a Utah Valley team that I don’t trust against quality competition.

The Wolverines are far too reliant on interior scoring since they struggle from deep, but SDSU is one of the best teams in the country at limiting 2-point scoring, as well as keeping teams off the offensive glass. The Jackrabbits should also have an easy time scoring against a defense that is 312th in effective field goal rate allowed, so I like them to pull the slight upset in what should be a fun game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNLV/Alabama Over 183.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 PM CT on truTV

It’s ironic that the F1 race was in Vegas this past weekend because this game at the MGM Grand Arena is going to closely resemble that. This will be an insane track meet in every sense of the word, with Alabama 6th in adjusted tempo and UNLV 12th, so both teams will play at a breakneck pace. The Tide simply doesn’t care what they give up defensively as long as they can get their 3’s or layups on the other end.

So a Rebels team with decent shooting numbers inside the arc and an ability to get to the line should put up plenty here. But UNLV hasn’t slowed anyone with a quality offense down this season, so this high-octane Bama team should have a field day, especially if they’re in a foul mood off last night’s Gonzaga loss. I see points, points, points in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Tide hit triple digits, and that would put this total well within reach.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 35-30 (+6.50 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.