Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/24

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Carolina Panthers @ SF 49ers -4.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

There are some definite reasons not to lay a big number of points for the full game with San Fran here. They just don’t cover the week after an outright win, and they’ve really struggled with extra rest games of late, so asking them to win by more than a touchdown tonight feels risky against a Carolina squad that always seems to stir up late-game magic. But the Panthers have been brutal early on in games with Bryce Young at the helm, going 3-8-1 ATS on the first half spread this season which is the NFL’s worst mark.

Young is also just 13-25-1 ATS on the first half number in his career, which puts him dead last of all QB’s since he joined the league. It’s a problem of production, as the Panthers simply can’t generate early points and rank 30th in first half scoring. And when you also rank 30th in first half points allowed on the road, there’s a clear path to seeing the 49ers and their rejuvenated offense getting them the first half cover tonight.

Bonus MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 122.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)

0.5 Unit – George Kittle Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rico Dowdle Over 96.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Tet McMillan Over 5.5 Receptions (+115)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 124.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the Wolves are bullies. Just look at their scoring splits against good and bad opponents, as they’re averaging 124.4 PPG against teams with losing records but just 113.0 PPG against winning teams. The Kings certainly aren’t a winning team, and their defense has been getting worse, now down to 28th in points allowed, defensive efficiency, and opponent floor percentage.

But Sacramento has been figuring it out a little bit on offense, and I think that helps them push the Wolves, creating the situation needed to clear a big total like this. After 144 and 124 points in the first two meetings, and in a bounce back spot after the Phoenix meltdown, I think the Wolves continue to push around weak opponents and clear this total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Timberwolves/Kings First Half Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Among the things that Sacramento is now third-worst in the league for, just ahead of the trainwrecks that are Brooklyn and Washington, is first half points allowed. They’re giving up 63.5 per game on the year, and 65.2 across their past 5 games which includes one meeting with Minnesota. The Wolves also see a significant drop-off in their first half defense when they hit the road, and an improving Kings offense should test them like I mentioned above. The first two meetings flew over this number with 121 and 125 points before halftime, and I think we see another instance tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

I don’t understand why the number is so short for this game overall with how bad Dallas has looked at times this season, but to only have to lay under a possession in the first quarter is even more attractive. The Heat can certainly be thought of as a high-flying offense whose breakneck pace leads to wild first quarters, but things are a little different in South Beach.

That’s where they actually play some defense, giving up a full 5 points less than first quarters on the road, which creates a plus-4.4 average margin for them. Dallas really struggles to score overall and early in games, ranked 28th in first quarter scoring, so I have a tough time seeing them keep up. Plus, big names like Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Nikola Jovic are looking like they might return for Miami tonight, so if an already strong Heat team gets reinforcements, they should roll early in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St John’s/Iowa State Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on truTV

Welcome to the new world of college hoops totals that have skyrocketed this season, and you just have to accept this new reality especially in Power 5 non-conference matchups. Just look at what these teams did in each of their lone non-conference games, coincidentally against SEC schools, with St John’s getting into a 199-point game with Alabama and my Cyclones going for 176 points with Mississippi State.

This number is low by those standards, and should get cleared thanks to St John’s driving a wild tempo. The Red Storm are 9th in adjusted tempo and have the 10th-shortest offensive possession length in the country, playing true Rick Pitino offense this season. I don’t think Iowa State shies away from that style, especially not on a neutral court, and with historically soft rims at this event in Las Vegas, look for plenty of scoring in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 32-28 (+4.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.