Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/23

Locks

NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This is a mismatch of the highest order, with an angry Seahawks team in a bounce back spot against easily the worst team in football. That’s why you see the game lined with a near two-touchdown spread, because anyone with eyes can tell you the Seahawks should roll today. I’m concerned that it’s not quite that easy, since Tennessee has covered a couple of large numbers in their past two games. The Seahawks are incredible on the road under Mike Macdonald though, going 9-3-1 ATS including 5-0 this season. So Seattle should take care of business today, but I’d rather enjoy the comfort of laying less than a touchdown.

NY Giants @ Detroit Lions (-6.5): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s the system play of all system plays here, only I’m cutting the needed number in half. Dan Campbell and the Lions bite knee caps like nobody else after a straight up loss like they took last week, winning and covering their past 13 games in this spot. That’s insane, and eventually will bite someone who’s banking on it continuing, so I’ll just ask them to win by a touchdown here. It’s a game they should be able to dominate from start to finish, running all over one of the worst rush defenses in the league, and generating turnovers from Jameis Winston who will start again today. An angry Detroit team might roll by a wild number in this one, but winning by this margin really isn’t asking a lot.

Jacksonville Jaguars/Arizona Cardinals Over (40.5): 3:05 PM CT on CBS

This Jacksonville offense is finally clicking, even with a lot of injury issues at the skill positions. With outputs of 30, 29, and 35 points the past 3 weeks, the Jags look like a prime candidate to shred a Cardinals defense that has been truly awful lately. Arizona has given up 40-plus in consecutive weeks as injuries have piled up on the defensive side of the ball, and that bad defense has caused their past 7 games to go over this adjusted number. But the insertion of Jacoby Brissett at quarterback has jump-started the offense, scoring in the 20’s in all 5 of his starts. Another output like that combined with this defense makes getting this game into the 40’s pretty simple in my opinion.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This is obviously the game of the week, and I don’t think either team is running away with it. So just from that standpoint it’s wise to be catching almost double digits with one team, especially when that team has the best offense in the league. It’s also wise from the standpoint of capitalizing on the close game reversal impacting Kansas City, who is 0-5 in one-score games this season after winning 17 of those in a row. I sense that this is a bounce back spot for the Chiefs who always bounce back after consecutive losses, but this just isn’t the typical Chiefs, and a good, rested Colts team should easily stay inside this big number.

Tampa Bay Bucs @ LA Rams (-1): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I’m starting to think the Rams might be the best, most complete team in the league. The defense has definitely rounded into form, now ranked 2nd in overall defensive EPA/play, which is an amazing complement to a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who would probably be the MVP if the season ended today. I think that the talent, coaching, and completeness we’re seeing from LA is just going to be too much for a Tampa team that is struggling with so many injuries. The Bucs are too decimated on offense to go across the country and win this game, even though Baker Mayfield always keeps them in games. So at essentially just a pick-em price, I like the Rams to keep rolling here.

NFL (1 Unit) NY Giants @ Detroit Lions -7.5 First Half (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Like I mentioned above, you have to back the Lions in this bounce back spot, and one of the smartest ways to do it is in the first half. Detroit has been just as dominant in first halves after a loss as they’ve been overall, and this season they’ve held leads of 14, 11, and 15 points at halftime of the games following their other losses. Those opponents have been relatively weak defensively, but not in the way that the Giants are on the ground where Detroit loves to attack. I think this gets out of hand right away against a dead Giants team missing their quarterback, and the Lions cover another first half number here.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Detroit Lions First Half Team Total Over 16.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Those three halftime margins I mentioned above came via scoring outputs of 28, 14, and 25 points, respectively. The 14 point day came against a quality Bucs defense that was able to stymie the Lions ground game for a while, which I mentioned won’t happen today with the league’s worst defense by EPA/rush in town. Detroit putting up two touchdowns and another score should be no problem, especially with the volatility Jameis Winston brings at QB for New York.

NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles Team Total Under 25.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

Is the Dallas defense rejuvenated by their trades? I’d like to think so, but it can also be true that the Eagles offense is broken right now. Since their bye 3 weeks ago, Philly has cleared this total in their past 2 games……combined, putting up 26 total points against the Packers and Lions.

Those are two fairly stout defenses, but the rumors of in-fighting with Jalen Hurts and his teammates, the AJ Brown meltdown, and the complete lack of any downfield attack has me looking to fade the Eagles offense against any defense with a pulse. Remember, the Cowboys held them under this number on the road in Week 1, and things have only gotten better for Dallas and worse for Philly since then, so I like the under on this number again.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Drake Maye Over 256.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Chase Brown Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+170)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – David Montgomery Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jameis Winston Over 1.5 Interceptions (+170)

0.75 Unit – Tyrod Taylor Over 186.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Alec Pierce Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alec Pierce Anytime TD (+275)

0.25 Unit – Michael Pittman Anytime TD (+265)

1 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Travis Etienne Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jakobi Meyers Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Michael Wilson Anytime TD (+210)

0.5 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Pickens Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Cade Otton Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+150)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+105)

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

Can’t let a compelling and entertaining noon football slate distract you from good opportunities in the NBA like this one. We seem to be testing the upper limits of what books are willing to hang for first quarter totals, and with good reason in this matchup. The Heat come into this game leading the league in first quarter scoring, and it takes a serious jump in their road games to 35.8 PPG.

So a Sixers team giving up 32.9 first quarter points in home games should be in trouble here, but they can certainly keep up since Miami is allowing 33.6 in the first quarter of road games. The pace we’re seeing out of the Heat this season is astounding and something that I just don’t think can be fully baked into totals like this, so I think we see another wild start for both of these teams.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder -4.5 First Quarter (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK

I’m sure the Thunder remember quite well what happened 2.5 weeks ago when they blew a massive lead in a surprising loss at Portland. That remains their lone loss of the season, and I would have to assume they’ll be out for revenge tonight. That vengeance should start early, just as it did in the first meeting when OKC led by 20 after the first quarter. The Blazers come into this game fairly banged up, and I think the opportunity is there for the Thunder to run them out of the building. But OKC is averaging a plus-5.7 point margin in home first quarters and now has unique motivation behind them, so I’ll lay what I see as a short number early in this game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-24 (-4.49 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.