Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/22

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via BetMGM)

Washington State @ James Madison (-7): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’d say around 90% of the handicap here is about pride and emotion. Intangibles like that aren’t fun to bet on, but I think this situation screams max effort from James Madison and spells trouble for just about anyone coming to Harrisonburg today. The Dukes have been done dirty by the CFP committee who is desperate for any higher-profile program to nab the Group of 5 bid.

But if JMU runs it up in this game and next week, the Dukes might have to be invited to the dance. Hosting a Wazzu team that has to make a cross-country trip for a rough body clock game should help the home team here, and I sense that they’ll cover the actual spread, but knocking it down to a touchdown is too good to pass up.

Eastern Illinois @ Alabama (-43.5): 1:00 PM CT on SECN+

This is going to get ugly in a hurry and stay ugly all game. At least if you’re from Eastern Illinois, who is walking into an absolute buzzsaw today as they get an angry Alabama squad. If the Tide hadn’t dropped a close home game last weekend to Oklahoma, I wouldn’t be touching them here with the Iron Bowl on deck, but instead we should see them focused on the task at hand.

Bama’s Week 1 loss at Florida State saw them come home and wax UL Monroe 73-0, and that’s an FBS school. Eastern isn’t even good by FCS standards, with two 30-point road losses at that level this season, so Alabama can play backups most of the game and still cruise to a cover of this adjusted number.

South Florida/UAB Over (61.5): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If this was a home game for South Florida, there would be some serious doubt that these teams can clear such a high total. But on the road the Bulls defense consistently melts, and that should allow UAB to contribute the points needed to reach such a high total. USF is now allowing 35.2 PPG on the road, and their past two road losses have eliminated them from CFP consideration.

So I think they continue to let go of the rope on defense, allowing plenty of points from a Blazers team that excels at scoring in garbage time. USF can probably name their score here against the team that is dead last in yards per point allowed, and second-worst in points per play, sending it over the adjusted total.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Florida Atlantic Team Total Over 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is another high-motivation spot for the home team, and I think it gives a boost to their offense. FAU is in need of two wins in their last two games here, both at home, to secure a bowl invite in Zach Kittley’s first season. And home is where the Owls have excelled this year, averaging 43.8 PPG and looking like a much more balanced offense in those 4 games.

Meanwhile, UConn comes to town with essentially nothing to play for as an already bowl-eligible independent, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see their defense not look the best, especially since they’ve been much worse on that side of the ball away from home. It should be a perfect afternoon for offense in Boca, and I’ll back the home squad to have a big day on the scoreboard.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Coby White Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on MNMT

The Bulls made the curious decision to sit White last night in a game that mattered instead of tonight against the pitiful Wizards, who they’re plenty capable of beating without him. I guess that just gets him feeling better and makes him more ready for this game where he should really be able to go off. White has come back from injury with a vengeance, dropping 27 and 25 in his two games so far with some red-hot shooting. He should be able to get whatever he wants against the worst defense in the NBA, and while you have to watch out for limited minutes, I think he has another big night.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Russell Westbrook Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on Altitude

Russ has been fairly inconsistent this season with his contributions, as you’d probably expect if you’ve watched any of his play the past few years. But give him credit for getting up against his former team in Denver, as he’s had two big games against them already. With 33 and 44 PRA in the two meetings so far this season, Westbrook has had two of his five best all-around games in this spot that obviously carries some extra motivation. With the Nuggets on a back-to-back with travel here, they should be prime victims for Russ to have another stat sheet stuffer tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-24 (-4.12 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.