Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/20

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans +6 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Oh look, everyone’s high on the Bills again, I’m sure that’s never bitten anyone before. This yo-yo of a season from a team with such high expectations has to be maddening for fans in Buffalo, but it’s also maddening for bettors when you expect the team to handle business. I’m finally realizing that they simply aren’t good, and the key injuries they’re dealing with on the defensive front are causing too much of a problem.

This is not a game where Josh Allen can do a Superman impression and compensate for the defense, as Houston is too good defensively. The league’s best defense by overall EPA and against the pass should hold Allen in check, especially with no Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman available tonight. And with the Bills defense ranked 31st in rush EPA, the Texans can keep it on the ground to control this game in a way that significantly favors the side getting this many points. Late in the season, these Thursday night games tend to really favor the home team as well, so I’ll take the points with the home dog here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Buffalo Bills/Houston Texans First Half Under 22.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

Sluggish starts are a hallmark of Thursday night games as both teams are always still recovering from Sunday’s action. Both the Bills and Texans had difficult games on Sunday as well, both needing to mount comebacks, albeit in two very different styles of games. So I see a slower first half in this one, fueled by the Texans burning clock by carving up the Bills on the ground, and Buffalo being stymied by the elite Houston defense. This number is advantageous with plenty of cushion above the key number of 21, so look for an early under tonight.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Woody Marks Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Going over this number would mean Marks approaches his season high of 69 yards which came against the Titans almost 2 months ago. Tennessee’s defense is the worst he’s seen in terms of rush EPA, and they’re 20th in that metric. Buffalo as I mentioned is all the way down at 31st and hasn’t been able to stop anything on the ground since Ed Oliver went out. I expect a steady diet of Marks carries tonight, and he should clear this number against a helpless and hapless Buffalo run defense.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

Looks like the big adjustment from books is finally here, as a Sixers first quarter is lined in a completely incongruent way to the rest of the game for what seems like the first time. And, it even comes in a game against a Milwaukee team that will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, so this feels a little trappy. I’m still jumping in though based on a few factors, not the least of which is that Philly has been making oddsmakers look foolish on first quarter totals all season so why stop now.

I think most importantly is that this will be a back-to-back with travel for the Sixers, whose first quarter defense is bad enough without playing on the least rest possible. The Bucks do tend to push pace early in games and should be able to capitalize on a tired opponent, although being without Giannis has been tough for their offense. Milwaukee is an elite jump shooting team though and takes a lot of three’s, so a perimeter-oriented game can definitely help with scoring. Giannis being out also hurts the defense though, so a Philly team that is 3rd in scoring for road first quarters should again create the type of start that goes over even this adjusted number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Tennessee St/Tennessee Over 157 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on SECN+

This total took off like a rocket from the open of 151 as soon as smart money could get in at higher limits. They’re seeing what I’m seeing, which is the potential of a blowout over thanks to Tennessee having a ton of matchup advantages. Teams like Tennessee State who like to play up-tempo are pretty foolish to bring that style to Knoxville, but the Tigers have no choice here.

They’re a small team with no size to compete with a massive frontcourt for the Vols, and are already 363rd in two-point percentage allowed. Tennessee loves to score inside and will get no resistance from this cupcake opponent, so when you factor in pace they should run up a massive number. This game should be eerily similar to Tennessee’s win over North Florida last week, a team that profiles almost exactly like Tennessee State and who the Vols ran out 99-66. I think Tennessee approaches or clears triple digits again, putting this total in very close reach.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-22 (-3.72 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.