Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/20

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Cleveland Cavaliers -8 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

The Cavaliers finally lost a game last night, and my guess is that it won’t sit well with them. If they want to get back to their dominant ways from the first 15 games of the season, this is the perfect opportunity against a terrible Pelicans team. New Orleans comes in shorthanded as usual, and also on a back-to-back like the Cavs are, so that angle cancels itself out.

What I’m looking at is Cleveland leading the league in first half scoring both overall and at home, facing a Pels squad that scores the fewest points before halftime on the road. There’s no stopping this Cavs offense when they step on the gas, especially not by a team that’s 28th in defensive efficiency, so this has early blowout written all over it.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Jalen Brunson Over 37.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Brunson hasn’t needed to have his usual heroic performances with KAT in New York now, but he’s still playing at an elite level. He still goes off for 30-plus points on occasion, and his scoring average of 24.4 PPG creates a nice foundation for this all-around prop. It’s his assisting that has really taken off in recent games, and I think he’s in for another big night offensively here. I really like this matchup for him against Tyus Jones, and a national TV game doesn’t hurt for motivation either, so look for Brunson to get over this combo tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico St +15.5 @ Dayton (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I think this number reflects too many people remembering the bottom falling out for the New Mexico State program a couple years ago, plus the excellence of Dayton from last season. But Aggies coach Jason Hooten has done an excellent job of building from nothing, while Dayton is a completely different team after turning over almost their entire starting lineup.

The big key for me here is pace, as both teams want to slow it down and play good defense. NMSU is 235th in adjusted tempo while Dayton is 261st, so possessions and scoring should be limited which favor the underdog. And I don’t see how Dayton can pull away by a wide margin without good three-point shooting, which has fallen off a cliff from last year and NMSU has a good perimeter defense anyway. This number is outside the metric site projections, so I’m going to take the points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue-Fort Wayne/Penn St Under 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on BIG+

Penn State started off the season snatching souls from helpless cupcake teams, and their offense looked unstoppable in the process. The Nittany Lions averaged 101.0 PPG against three opponents ranked outside the top-300 in KenPom, so it’s more than fair to call them overinflated. As soon as they faced a respectable opponent, the scoring slowed down and they stayed well under this total.

It’s kind of the same thing in reverse for Fort Wayne, who started off with a quality opponent in UCF and then hung big numbers on two very bad teams. So the Mastodons look a little overrated in the offense department as well, but bring a solid defense to this matchup that should continue to slow Penn State down. With PSU also ranked 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency, I think we’ll see more defensive success than anything tonight in a game that stays under the big total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Poly/Arizona St Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t know what’s gotten into Bobby Hurley and the Sun Devils, but the secret is out on their games flying over totals. This number opened above the metrics site projections and still took a ton of sharp action to the over, so smart money is paying attention. I think this matchup is one that should see more points as it’s a spot where ASU can run out a poor opponent.

Cal Poly wants to fly up and down the court, averaging the 6th-shortest possession on offense in the country. They can’t really stop anything as evidenced by allowing 86 and 91 points in their tangles with higher-level competition, so ASU should get whatever they want tonight. I think a lot of points come on easy runout opportunities since the Mustangs turn it over at the 12th-highest rate in the country, but they’ll also splash some three’s since that’s their entire offense. If Hurley and company decide to run it up here like they’re capable of, then this big total is well within reach.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Davis Team Total Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m losing a lot of faith in the Grand Canyon defense, which has really fallen off compared to last season. From an adjusted efficiency standpoint the Lopes are pretty decent, but their shooting defense is a serious concern. They’re down to 317th in opponent effective field goal rate, and are getting killed from beyond the arc at 345th in opponent three-point percentage.

That’s how every opponent has cleared this team total against them, and I think another will tonight. UC Davis is not a good shooting team, but GCU is making everyone look like a better shooting team than they are. And the Aggies play with their hair on fire at 26th in adjusted tempo, with the 14th-shortest possession length on offense. That should give them enough possessions here to find opportunity against a porous defense and clear this team total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.