Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/19

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/San Antonio Spurs Over 222.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

This game is on TNT because it was anticipated that we’d see Victor Wembanyama square off against Chet Holmgren tonight, but the injury to Holmgren ended that idea. What I think that ends up meaning for this game is Wemby going wild against an OKC interior that’s about as short-staffed as you can get right now.

Keep an eye on Wembanyama’s status for this game, but with him playing I think we see the Spurs exploit some of the defensive weaknesses that have popped up for the Thunder lately. But OKC should be in a foul mood after losing on Sunday to Dallas without Luka Doncic, so I would expect them to try putting it on the Spurs tonight. Remember that margin of victory matters in these NBA Cup games, so teams are incentivized to run it up and I think that leads to points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Buffalo @ Vermont -14.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Give credit to Vermont for challenging themselves with an extremely tough schedule to start out this season. The Catamounts have played nothing but true road games against strong competition, including visiting Auburn who might be the best team in the country.

At just 1-3 the record isn’t pretty, but they’re stronger than it indicates and a little undervalued in the market as a result. I think the benefits of that challenging start are about to show up tonight in their first home game here, as they’ve always been dominant in Burlington. That’s especially true against bad teams, which is what they’ll see tonight as Buffalo checks in at 334th in KenPom and 356th in Torvik rankings.

The Bulls cannot defend anything, so Vermont’s offense will get back on track here as their two TJ’s should go off. With Vermont also boasting an excellent defense and slow tempo, they should shut down a Buffalo team that’s only successful when they can run, pulling away for a blowout victory tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Rider @ Iowa -21.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on BTN+

After a down year last season where they did not have the three-point shooters needed for their style, Iowa appears to be back to the usual way Fran McCaffrey wants to play. The Hawkeyes are 19th in three-point attempts and getting a heavily skewed percentage of their points from long range, which makes them easily able to pull away from teams like Rider.

This is just a tough matchup for the Broncs who have a weak offense and no ability to stop the Iowa barrage when it comes. Rider has also only faced one opponent that’s better than 293rd in KenPom, losing by 35 to another Big10 team in UCLA. It’s always seemed like Iowa is aware of the spread and looking to crush it in these non-conference home games against weak competition, and with the lopsided matchup here I think the Hawkeyes run away with this.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.