Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans First Half Team Total Over 13 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
I really wanted to tease the Texans down in this game, but there’s no dance partner available tonight so time for a different approach. It’s been a successful approach if you’ve been paying attention to Cowboys home games throughout the calendar year of 2024 dating back to the playoffs last season. The Dallas defense has been getting torched in AT&T Stadium to the tune of 40.2 PPG in those 5 home games, with 24.8 points coming before halftime.
Houston isn’t exactly bringing an elite offense into JerryWorld tonight, but the Cowboys were lit up at home this season by the Saints so I’m not too worried about the Texans being productive here. They’re getting Nico Collins back which has been the key to their offense the past two seasons, and the Cowboys can’t cover talented wide receivers. You also have to play the narrative here with Houston, who is likely to want to make a statement on Monday Night Football after last week’s debacle, so I see that leading to lots of early points from them.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)
0.25 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Tank Dell Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.1 Unit – Houston D/ST Anytime TD (+500)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech First Half Team Total Over 48.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Texas Tech has been putting it on teams to start this season, taking advantage of a pretty soft schedule. The Red Raiders have started strong in every game, averaging 46.0 first half points which is good for 8th nationally. I’m inclined to believe that will improve today as they take on one of the worst defenses in the country with Arkansas-Pine Bluff coming to town.
The Golden Lions are dead last in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, and are allowing 49.0 first half points which is 3rd-worst in the country. And they’ve only faced one team with a decent offense, allowing Cincinnati to hang 55 on them before halftime. Texas Tech is actually a better offense than Cincy by adjusted offensive efficiency, so I’m expecting them to run wild in the first half here before coasting late.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Dakota St Team Total Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
As usual, NDSU has shooters all over their roster and they’re not afraid to let it fly from deep. I think that’s the big key in this matchup and should see the Bison clear their team total with ease against a bad defense. NDSU is 9th nationally in three’s attempted per game and they’re shooting it at a 36.1% so far, which is a number I expect to improve tonight.
Southern Illinois comes into this matchup ranked 348th in three-point percentage allowed, which is a big reason why they’ve allowed 90 and 85 points to their two D1 opponents this season. The Salukis are also playing very up-tempo, which will just give more possessions and opportunities for NDSU to splash three’s. With the Bison having a pretty bad defense themselves, I see them needing to keep pace in this game which makes this team total seem very low in my opinion.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +69.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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