Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
Washington Commanders +9.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Even before they got good this season, the Commanders have seemed to consistently give the Eagles trouble. The past 6 meetings have seen Philadelphia go 5-1 straight up, but 2-3-1 ATS with an average margin of plus-4.8 points. And that was before they got Jayden Daniels to turn the franchise around, so I see this year’s meetings being close ones.
I get a sense that the spread sticking at 3.5 means the Eagles are the right side for who will win tonight. But asking an Eagles team that still makes dumb mistakes to win a divisional game by double digits seems like too much, so I’ll take the extra cushion with the Commanders tonight.
Washington Commanders/Philadelphia Eagles Over 42.5
The Eagles offense might finally be clicking after early season weirdness, especially since they’re mostly healthy now. No matter how you look at it, they’ll face a Washington defense that still has plenty of holes in it and are ranked 20th in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate. And while the Philly defense has flown up the rankings for most metrics, they’ve benefited from a lot of soft matchups.
Against what I’d consider quality offenses, the Eagles have allowed 24.8 PPG, and Washington is a top-3 offense by every version of EPA/play and success rate you can find. This matchup has also produced some wild shootouts in recent years, so look for them to clear this adjusted total tonight.
Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Noah Brown Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Noah Brown Anytime TD (+290)
0.25 Unit – Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+120)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +70.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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