Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/12

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Toledo @ Miami-OH +4.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I’ll just get it out of the way right now, I think the wrong team is favored here. If you’re still falling for the Toledo road favorite trick in the year 2025, then I’m not sure what to tell you. Rockets coach Jason Candle consistently pulls the rug out from bettors in this spot when this team looks good, much less the average version he has this season.

The home/road splits are brutal though, with the Rockets going 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS on the road this season. And here they’re running into a Miami team that is underappreciated, highly motivated, and playing with an element of revenge. The Redhawks get bowl eligible with a win here, which would also fast track their chances at a MAC title game appearance, and quarterback Dequan Finn can do it against his former school where he spent 5 seasons. I think Miami wins this outright, and there are some juicy alt numbers available if you have access and want to dabble, but I’m definitely taking the points here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/OKC Thunder Over 229.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Lakers have the second-best over record in the league, and it’s due in large part to them clearing a lot of totals in the upper-220’s range. That’s where we land for tonight’s total, and I think it’s another opportunity for them to have a high-scoring affair even though they’re up against an excellent defense. We know the Lakers aren’t much on the defensive end of the floor, ranked 23rd in defensive rating and efficiency, so it’s the Thunder we need to worry about for this handicap.

But OKC is on no rest here after going over a total in this range last night, so I’ll count on some tired legs impacting the league’s top-rated defense. This will be a test for that Thunder defense anyway considering how good a shooting team the Lakers are, with the second-best true shooting percentage in the league. So with Luka Doncic going scorched earth right now and the defenses a little vulnerable, I think we see these teams clear the total tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets -1.5 First Quarter @ LA Clippers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on Altitude

The Nuggets finally didn’t cover a first quarter last night after starting the season with 9 straight. So this is the perfect opportunity to jump in on them at a shorter number and against a struggling team. The Clippers look rough right now without Kawhi Leonard or Bradley Beal, who aren’t scheduled to return for LA until the next game.

They’ve struggled to score in the absence of those stars, and offensive problems are not something you want to bring to a game with the Nuggets. Especially early in the game, as the Nuggets tend to jump on opponents early with the third-most points in opening quarters and the best average first quarter margin. Denver will want a better start after last night’s game actually saw them trailing after 12 minutes, so I’ll lay the short number with the league’s fastest-starting team.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota St +15.5 @ Oregon (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Peacock

I had much higher hopes for Oregon, but until they break out of this shooting slump and prove something, they’re not running out quality teams like SDSU. This number is a bit of a trap with a big name program hosting a small conference school, but the Jackrabbits can hang here. Just like Hawaii and Rice have hung in against Oregon in Eugene, with a couple of very narrow victories for the lucky Ducks.

Oregon is preposterously 340th in effective field goal percentage, plagued by turnovers at 326th in assist-to-turnover margin, and would maybe be 0-2 if not for getting a ton of production at the free throw line. Their 3 best players aren’t helping much, shooting a combined 20.6% from deep, and now they face a tough defense that isn’t as foul prone as their past two opponents. So if they can’t count on free throw production and the shooting and turnover problems persist, the Ducks should be on upset alert and I’ll take the big number of points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 33-39 (-0.59 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.