Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/11

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors First Half Team Total Over 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES

In case you haven’t been following along, the 1-9 Nets are also 1-9 at holding their opponents under the first half team total. The league’s worst defense by efficiency and rating is unsurprisingly the worst at slowing teams down in the first half. It’s almost a joke at this point, but the funny part might be books continuing to offer numbers like this. I think the Raptors clear it easily, as this is a top-10 offense by overall shooting, efficiency, and pace, along with 5th-best from beyond the arc. That’s a recipe for running it up early again, and I see Toronto doing exactly that tonight.

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

I can’t decide if this is my favorite NBA trend right now or if it’s the Nets one above, but I sure love when they both fall on the same day. The Sixers just refuse to stop playing wild first quarters, as they’re dead last in points allowed but 4th in scoring for opening frames. You might be tempted to look at Boston here and think they’re more of a defensive-oriented squad, which is not wrong as they’re 9th in defensive efficiency.

But the Celtics are just 17th in first quarter points allowed, so they don’t tend to clamp down early. Case in point would be their last meeting with Philly, where they game went well under the total but 63 points went up in the first quarter. This number is adjusted a little bit towards compensating for these wild starts by the 76ers, but not enough in my opinion and I’ll be riding this trend that’s currently 9-1 into the ground.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M-CC @ Kansas -25.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Metrics sites make this right around a 25-point win for Kansas, but I don’t think the numbers are representative of the situation. Kanas is coming off an embarrassing beatdown at North Carolina, and will be looking to take it out on someone. Bill Self is known to run it up in these spots, and I think the Jayhawks have an easy path to a blowout if they want to take it.

This Corpus Christi team faces an extremely difficult matchup here, as they’ve been unable to score inside against much weaker competition so far. With Flory Bidunga patrolling the paint, the Islanders will have to keep relying on outside shooting, but KU has already shut down one of the country’s most three-happy teams in running out Green Bay by 43 points. I don’t see a path to much offensive production for A&M here, so if Kansas is in a get-right mood they’ll be able to run away with this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech/Illinois Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

What do you do when a team has played 2 games and scored exactly 98 points in both? Probably look at the over in their next game. What do you do when another team has played 2 games and scored exactly 113 points in both? Definitely give the over in their next game a lot of consideration. What do you do when those teams meet for their respective third games?

What you certainly don’t do is entertain betting the under, as there’s only one reasonable play for this one and it’s to expect points. Both of these offenses have gone nuclear, albeit against much lesser competition, but still to the point where even smart money isn’t scared of a total that opened high and kept getting higher. These are the country’s 12th and 2nd-best offenses by adjusted efficiency, and this game being at Illinois should allow the Illini to dictate an up-tempo style, so fireworks should be coming here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-40 (-2.09 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.