Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/10

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles ML @ Green Bay Packers (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

This number has been creeping towards the Eagles all week, to the point where taking anything but the moneyline with Philly presents no value. I’m happy to anyway, as the Eagles are 4-0 straight up as underdogs the past 2 seasons, and should be on a mission tonight. Philadelphia is rested and healthy off their bye, and have been able to spend their week off planning how to beat up on the team that led the campaign to ban the Tush Push.

That will probably end up being something the Packers regret by the end of the night, especially since they’ve had such trouble against the run in recent weeks. I think the Packers are frauds overall, we haven’t seen a full quality game from them all season, and they just lost Tucker Kraft who was providing almost a quarter of their offensive production. The Eagles defense keeps getting better, healthier, and now reinforced with trades, so I think they shut down the inconsistent Pack and leave Green Bay with a win tonight.

Bonus MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+105)

0.25 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions (+115)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Utah Jazz First Half Over 113.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

This number is just too low for how the Wolves have been playing, and how I see this game shaping up. Minnesota scores far more in first halves than second, with the first halves of their games averaging 119.8 points and going 8-2 over this total. They’ll also be a little worn out after a high-possessions game last night in Sacramento, and the trip to elevation in Utah will wear out the defense even more.

So the Jazz should be able to bounce back a little from the 40-point drubbing the Wolves put on them Friday night, which I think means better offense from them. You’re not going to fix Utah’s defense though, as they come in at 24th in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal rate allowed, so I see an offense-oriented start to this one that clears what I think is a low number.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Miami Heat First Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Sun

If you had told me any time within, I don’t know, the past decade maybe, that I’d see a Heat game with a total of 247.5 points, I wouldn’t have stopped laughing. Well joke’s over, this is a very serious number that not only opened well above the 240 threshold, it’s been going up ever since.

Honestly if I had to bet the full game total I could only look to the over, but I think books have missed something important on this first quarter number. This is the same first quarter total you would see in a game with a far lower overall total, so it’s not being lined appropriately with how this game is going to go. It’s a matchup of the highest-scoring first quarter team in the Heat at 35.6 points, against the 5th-highest in the Cavaliers at 32.6, so they’re no stranger to starting fast.

And Miami can’t stop anything either, giving up the 4th-most opening quarter points, and won’t have Bam Adebayo anchoring the defense tonight. Cleveland will have Darius Garland back, and the two games he’s played have seen the Cavs drop 41 and 39 first quarter points, so all signs point to a wild start tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Santa Clara/Xavier Under 156.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

Richard Pitino taking over at Xavier will eventually lead to the Musketeers playing his up-tempo style with a high-flying offense. But I don’t think he has the horses for that to take effect yet, as that offense has not looked great through two games. The pace is there, as is the high volume of three’s, but Xavier has not shot it well against two cupcakes so far, further signaling that the talent just isn’t there yet for this program. With Santa Clara coming to town, this should be a three-point contest which can certainly create high variance with the total, but I just don’t think either team is shooting it well enough to justify this high of a number, so I’ll take the under.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 35-40 (-0.19 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.