Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/09

Locks

NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

Baltimore Ravens/Minnesota Vikings Over (41.5): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This Vikings defense got some key pieces back last week, played out of their minds, and still gave up 24 points to a sleepwalking Lions team. The same kind of production allowed here would put this adjusted total well within range, but I happen to think things go much worse for Minnesota’s defense today. They’re playing a hyper-focused Ravens team with zero margin for error, that made doubly sure they could get Lamar Jackson to full health for this stretch run.

Facing Lamar for the first time is a difficult task for a head coach like Kevin O’Connell, and I think Baltimore has a great day offensively, especially if Brian Flores stubbornly blitzes over and over. The past 24 games started by Lamar have gone 18-6 to the over, and the Vikings sitting with the best over record in the league surely signals points. Being able to knock this total down through several key numbers makes me even more comfortable, and I think we see another Vikings game turn into a shootout.

NY Giants/Chicago Bears Over (40): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Welcome to weather season in the NFL, where changing forecasts can create wild swings in betting numbers. This game was expected to be played in a rain/snow mix with some moderate winds thrown in, causing the total to dip several points from the opener. But that forecast has cleared up, except for the typical Chicago winds, so the total is back up to where it started.

I think that makes it very much in range for an over in general, but I just love cancelling out any line movement and getting a better number here. We know the Giants are going to stop anything, as they’ve allowed 20 or more points in 10 straight road games, with opponents averaging 31.6 PPG away from home this season. They’re 5-1 to the over with Jaxson Dart at the helm as a result, and with this Bears defense fresh off an insane game in Cincinnati, I think both defenses are vulnerable enough to clear this adjusted total.

Detroit Lions -1.5 @ Washington Commanders: 3:25 PM CT on FOX

This is the ideal spot to back Detroit for so many reasons, and only asking them to cover this short number seems easy. I know, it seemed easy last week when they were shocked by the Vikings, but losses do not sit well with this team. Dan Campbell gets his team off the mat, winning and covering 12 straight games after a loss. This is also a revenge spot for the Lions after they were bounced from the playoffs by this Commanders team.

Well, not exactly this Commanders team, since Jayden Daniels is done for the year, and I’m very comfortable attacking Marcus Mariota in the betting market. The key might be the ground, where Detroit wants to pound it and Washington can’t stop it, especially off a bad rushing week last week. Detroit is 14-3 ATS the week after running for less than 100 yards, so I think they dominate this game but will happily adjust the number to here.

NFL (1 Unit) Detroit Lions First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

I think this game offers some of the best angles of a fairly weak schedule today. As long as you believe Detroit is looking to make a statement, there’s plenty to like about what they can potentially do against this Commanders team. It starts with their offense, one of the best in the league, facing a defense that is now 28th in EPA/play after Seattle had their way on Sunday night. Teams often bounce back from that kind of performance, but with the Lions coming in angry and averaging 14.6 first half points on the season, I have to expect them to put a big number on the defense allowing the 4th-most points before halftime.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Detroit Lions -5.5 First Half @ Washington Commanders (-110; Odds via Caesars)

As I said above, this Lions team bounces back better than almost anyone. That includes first halves, where Detroit is 14-3 ATS on the first half spread the week after failing to cover before halftime like they did against Minnesota. With the Washington defense so prone to allowing first half points, yet lagging back at 23rd in first half scoring, I think the beatdown starts early and I’ll lay this with the Lions.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mark Andrews Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – James Cook Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Devon Achane Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyle Monangai Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Theo Johnson Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Colston Loveland Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Quinshon Judkins Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Rachaad White Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Cade Otton Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)

0.25 Unit – Cade Otton Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Drake Maye Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 7.5 Receptions (+125)

1 Unit – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Marvin Harrison Jr Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

0.75 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 96.5 Rushing+Receiving  Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – David Montgomery Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)

0.75 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 119.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Oronde Gadsden Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jarrett Patterson Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Julius Randle Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

How will Big Ju back up a triple-double? I’m betting with more of the same, as he’s been integral to this team in all phases, even with Anthony Edwards looking like his truly healthy self on Friday. Randle has only fallen short of this number twice on the year, and he’s been cooking weak defenses like he’ll see tonight in Sacramento. The Kings are simply too small to match his size and physicality, and with Domantas Sabonis returning they somehow get worse defensively, so I think Randle has another stat-stuffer game.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New York Knicks First Half Team Total Over 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on YES

Good for Brooklyn, they managed to hold an opponent under their first half team total, by a single bucket. I just don’t care, it’s going to take a lot more instances to scare me away from blindly betting against the Nets defense in first halves. The Knicks should be able to beat up on their neighbors across the bridge here, as their offense has looked very good in 4 straight games against bad defensive opponents. They face the worst of the worst tonight, and I think they find their way over this big number.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

I’m just going to list out the numbers because there aren’t that many of them yet: 54, 65, 61, 72, 63, 77, 72, 68, and 76. Those are the first quarters of 76ers games this season, averaging out to a hefty 67.6 points per game and obviously going 8-1 over this total. The Sixers just don’t play any defense, ranking dead last in 1st quarter points allowed which is odd for a team that’s about average for defensive efficiency overall.

Whatever is going on, I think it continues tonight, as the Pistons are also weak defensively in first quarters. While Detroit doesn’t score with the proficiency you’d necessarily want, I just don’t think it matters at this point with Philly’s defense out there. The Sixers are also on no rest here, so I see another defense-optional opening quarter for them.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Kelly Oubre Over 16.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is an adjustment from yesterday, one of the first and most significant I’ve seen for Oubre, and thanks to his easily clearing the 14.5 set for last night's game. So I’m a little hesitant given the steeper price, but I still think he can clear it. In a back-to-back here, pace and lack of defense should create more opportunities for him, and he’s been so consistent that I can’t walk away now.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-25 (+1.91 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.