Locks
NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-2): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
The Raiders got Brock Bowers back last week and looked a whole lot better, but they’re nowhere near good enough to win this game. They’re also in a horrific situational spot here coming off a wild overtime game and having to travel on short rest. Teams to follow an overtime game with a Thursday game on the road are 6-21 SU and 4-23 ATS, so I see this going badly for a disadvantaged Raiders squad. In some more notable trends, Geno Smith has failed to cover his last 5 primetime starts, while Bo Nix is 13-1 SU as a favorite, so adjusting this number down to basically ask Denver to win is great value.
UTSA/South Florida Over 60.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Who’s getting stops in this game? Certainly not UTSA, who ranks 112th in yards per point allowed and 113th in points per play, as they’re very susceptible to giving up big plays. That explosiveness is what South Florida specializes in, and the Bulls should be looking to make a statement and take out some frustrations after losing to Memphis last time out. But UTSA plays extremely fast, throws it all over the yard, and can exploit a USF secondary that is the biggest weakness on the team. USF has played 6 games in a row in the 60’s and I see more of the same tonight against another shootout-prone opponent.
Georgia Southern/Appalachian State Over 54.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Nobody’s getting stops in this game either, as both defenses struggle but especially Georgia Southern. This Eagles defense gives up the 9th-most points in the country and the most yardage per game, and just about everyone has been taking advantage. A fast-paced and pass-happy App State offense should have no trouble slicing them up, but the Mountaineers have collapsed defensively as well. They haven’t been able to stop the run all season, but now the secondary has fallen to 105th in PFF coverage and 121st in pass explosiveness allowed. Georgia Southern has had no trouble scoring against the weaker Sun Belt defenses, and their up-tempo offense should help fuel a shootout in this one as well.
Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Bo Nix Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)
0.25 Unit – Byrum Brown Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit - Byrum Brown Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (-110)
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Grambling @ Iowa State -33.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
My Cyclones need to show me something here, namely that they can blow right past all kinds of expectations and continue to dominate in the non-conference. This is a strange number, as the spread opened above the KenPom and Bart Torvik projections, then got bet up by smart money instead of aligning with the metrics guys. So either they know something, or they recognize what I’ve always said about ISU in these spots which is they dominate cupcakes at home. It’s tough to know much about Grambling at this point, but they did hang with some tough power conference teams last season so I’ll cautiously follow the smart money here and lay the big lumber.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-17 (+7.28 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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