Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/06

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is about as low a number as you’ll find for the Celtics and a first half, so I’m not able to just leave the discount on the table. There’s good reason why it’s lower, primarily because Golden State allows the fewest first-half points in the league. But a review of Golden State’s 7 games so far show a list of some of the worst teams and worst offenses in the league, so this will be a shock to that defense’s system. The Celtics at home, in a game against an old rival, without Jaylen Brown to build a brick house, looks like a good opportunity to get in on this low number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oral Roberts/Minnesota Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on BTN+

I’m looking at metrics sites projecting this game to approach the 150’s and can’t say I disagree. That’s a pretty significant difference to this total, and I’m definitely encouraged by the agreement among the different sites’ projections. With star scorer Dawson Garcia back for another season, the Gophers have plenty of scoring ability and should flex it here against an overmatched ORU squad. But the Golden Eagles will have success offensively as well since they’ll always be an up-tempo team that thrives from outside the arc. If Minnesota runs away with this as expected, blowout conditions should help create enough scoring to match those metrics projections.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Lipscomb/Arkansas Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This will be interesting to see John Calipari’s debut at Arkansas, and I’d assume a statement is coming. Coach Cal has always run a high-flying offense capable of scoring at will, and changing schools is not going to change that or the raw talent level of his recruits. Putting that talent and pace on the floor with this Lipscomb squad should result in a serious shootout, as the Bisons can match it all night. Last season, Lipscomb was 12th in effective field goal rate and 12th in three-point percentage, so their offense can hang here. But they’ve always been an awful defensive team so Arkansas will feast here, and that should push this game over the high total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.