Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Julius Randle Over 32.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is actually the perfect game for Anthony Edwards to return in if you’re Julius Randle. The Knicks will have to account for Ant and make Randle a secondary consideration for their defense, and I think he takes advantage. Randle has been cooking in all three stat categories while Ant has been out, so it’s not like he can just get phased out in a flash. And going back to Madison Square Garden to face his old team, with ESPN in the house, should give him plenty of motivation to stuff the stat sheet tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Cleveland Cavaliers 1st Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

Yesterday’s Sixers game was extremely annoying. There were 72 points after the first quarter, 131 at halftime, and the game fell well under the total. That’s enough to frustrate even the most battle-scarred sports bettor, but you know what they say: the great ones adjust. So my new plan is to bet the over in every first quarter of Sixers games, and then we’ll see about maybe some live unders after that.

But the new plan gets to go into effect right away tonight, with the Sixers on no rest and facing a Cavaliers team that is likely to get Darius Garland back for this one. With Philly ranking 3rd in first quarter scoring and 28th in points allowed, the Cavs being an up-tempo team with positive shooting regression looming, I actually think this total is a bargain and should get cleared easily.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers First Half Team Total Over 58.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports IN

This Indiana team needs a break, and it doesn’t get any easier in the NBA right now than facing Brooklyn. It’s been a rough start for the Pacers who simply can’t shoot despite having some decent offensive pieces on the roster. You don’t need to be a sharpshooting squad to hang big numbers on the Nets though, who continuously let every team do whatever they want offensively. The Nets have now allowed all 7 opponents this season to clear this total, giving up a league-high 68.6 first half points on average. Indiana’s offensive struggles are holding this number down, but I’m stubbornly fading Brooklyn this way in every game regardless of opponent, so let’s ride.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

This game has a sky-high total for good reason, but I’m focusing in on the first quarter again due to how both teams have been playing. Miami leads the league in first quarter scoring, both overall and on the road where their numbers actually go up, while Denver is 5th overall and 3rd at home so far. But the key for me is the Heat being second only to the aforementioned awful Nets in points allowed in opening quarters at 32.9 per game. The Heat’s defensive reputation probably holds this total down a little bit, but that’s just not them so far this season. With Miami also leading the league in pace, playing fast at elevation won’t help that defense one bit and I think we see an offensive showcase to open this game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-19 (+4.83 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.