Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/03

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

Sweet, my favorite team is playing tonight, I’ll be able to watch them. This is fairly simple in my opinion: the Cowboys are back to being dominant at home against weak competition. They have shown a tendency in recent years to run it up when they have the chance to at home, and that’s continued this season to some extent with a 44-22 win over Washington a couple weeks ago.

What’s interesting about that game is that it was the third time in three tries that they’ve hung 40-plus at home. It’s also interesting that all three of their home games so far have followed disappointing efforts on the road. That’s where we find them again after getting blown out in Denver, so returning home to face a defense that is just 20th in EPA/play and 25th in success rate allowed puts them in position for another outburst. That’s exactly what I think we get and I’d consider this team total to be far too low.

Bonus MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Trey McBride Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zonovan Knight Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – George Pickens Anytime TD (+130)

0.25 Unit – Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+115)

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Team Total Over 58 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

Uh oh, my other favorite team is also playing tonight? This could get complicated, but maybe this bet will be finished by the time the Cowboys game kicks off. This one is pretty simple again, as fading the Nets defense is one of the easiest decisions in the NBA right now. The only defensive metric Brooklyn doesn’t rank dead last in is points allowed as the Wizards are 0.3 PPG worse right now.

Their first half defense is especially atrocious and the reason for this play, as they’re allowing a ridiculous 69.5 first half points per game. That has also meant opponents are 6-0 over this total on the season against them, and with the Nets on a back-to-back against a Wolves team looking to make statements, I think Minnesota soars over this number.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Julius Randle Over 25.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

I’m expecting Randle to keep unleashing his inner ball hog against the league’s worst defense and get easy points in bunches. His points prop continues to be lined as if books are expecting Ant’s workload to get evenly spread out, but that’s just not the case. Randle is the lead dog now, and after back-to-back 30-pieces against poor defenses, he should have another massive game against the tank-a-thon that is the Brooklyn Nets.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

This handicap is eerily similar to how I’m viewing the Cowboys tonight. The Nuggets are returning home after a disappointing road loss in the final seconds, and I think it has them fired up for this game. They’re typically dominant at home anyway, but the added motivation should be what’s needed to run the Kings out from the opening tip.

And they’ve done it before, taking a frustrating road loss in the season opener and turning it into a 17-point halftime lead of the next game at home, and the Kings actually have a worse defense. Sacramento is at the end of a long road trip, they’re shorthanded, and now go to elevation after a couple of up-tempo games. With Jamal Murray and Cam Johnson probable for tonight, the Nuggets should jump all over the Kings here and take a big lead into halftime.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Fairleigh Dickinson @ Iowa State -35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Are you kidding, my alma mater is tipping off right before my Cowboys kick off while the Wolves will also be playing? It’s a good problem to have when all these sports converge, I just need more screens. For this game, a big spread isn’t scaring me away, you just have to understand how the Cyclones play early in the season. The number here is essentially just a composite of the Bart Torvik and KenPom projections, which is all the books have to go on when the season starts.

But ISU runs it up on bad teams at Hilton with regularity, averaging a 33.5 point average margin against their cupcake opponents last season, and 39.8 the season before that. Fairleigh Dickinson is projected to be one of the absolute worst teams in the country, ranked 349th out of 365 teams on KenPom with a terrible offense and defense. If the Clones are looking to run it up they’ll have no trouble, so I’m laying the big number here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Lehigh @ Houston -20.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Look out below, the revenge tour starts now for Houston. After fumbling away the national championship in the final minute, the Cougars should be raring to go in this opener and Lehigh will be an easy victim. The Mountain Hawks have to face a Houston team that led the country in average first half margin at home last season, with their 6 home games against non-power conference opponents averaging a 25.5 point halftime lead. And Lehigh is projected to stink, with the country’s 322nd adjusted offensive efficiency mark facing the best defense out there. I don’t see any way for Lehigh to produce in that scenario, and Houston’s physicality, length, and anger will carry them to a first half blowout.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-13 (+7.20 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.