Locks
NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins: 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
How wild is it that the Ravens are the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North? That tells you quite a bit about where the other teams stand, but also a lot about what Baltimore can and should be this season. I think this team understands the assignment here of banking critical wins against opponents like the Dolphins, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout.
But I’m hesitant to believe that Lamar Jackson is fully healthy, and if he’s even slightly limited I’d much rather have the Ravens at a number where they just need to win the game. Last week’s Dolphins win was a mirage against a schizophrenic team, and a dominant running game coming to town tonight should roll over an awful run defense and get the Ravens a crucial win.
Marshall/Coastal Carolina Over 49.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Marshall games have a tendency to get wild, and I don’t think tonight will be any different. The Herd are an offensive machine behind Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and his dual threat ability, scoring at least 38 points in every game he has played a full 4 quarters. They’re extremely efficient, ranking 5th nationally in yards per point and 20th in points per play, so they should tear up a Coastal defense that is outside the top-80 in the defensive versions of those metrics.
The Chanticleers have a tendency to roll over and let quality teams beat them up, so look for Marshall to hang a big number. But Coastal might have better offensive success than they’re used to here against a very vulnerable Marshall defense. They’ve turned to JUCO transfer quarterback Samari Collier, whose legs give them an element that can exploit a defense that is just 115th in points per play allowed. I think this one goes back and forth all night, so being able to knock more than 10% of the total off with this tease has me feeling confident.
Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.25 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
0.25 Unit – Justice Hill Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Keaton Mitchell Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Devon Achane Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic/Charlotte Hornets Over 239.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
The other day I saw a Miami Heat total in this range, and today I’m seeing an Orlando Magic total here. I would question what the world is coming to, but the common denominator in the two games was this Charlotte team. The Hornets are an over bettor’s dream right now, starting the season with a 4-0 record to the over thanks to incredibly high tempo and horrible defense.
The Hornets can run and they can shoot, so even the Magic who have been known for defense in recent years are susceptible to getting into a track meet. That’s even more of the case with the Magic having played in Detroit last night and Philly three nights ago, where they allowed 135 and 136 points. So their defense is not what we’re used to out of Orlando, and I think tired legs plus Charlotte’s style send this game over the big total tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-35 (-7.27 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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