Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/27

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs 1st Half Team Total Over 16.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

Why do I get this sinking feeling like the Chiefs are back? Their weird collapse in Jacksonville aside, Kansas City has been rolling and is certainly on an upward trajectory. I think they take this opportunity with a second home Monday Night Football game in the past three weeks to make a statement against a pretty weak defense.

Washington is 25th in first half points allowed, and are giving up 17.0 PPG before halftime in their road games. KC is averaging 16.0 first half points at home, so this is a fair number from that standpoint, but the Chiefs have played exactly one game with a full-strength offense. That was last week when they put up 21 in the first half on the Raiders, a team with a similar defensive profile to Washington. The Chiefs toyed with the Raiders and I think they can name their score here, so look for them to run it up early before coasting late tonight.

Bonus MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs Team Total Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet

From their overall play it looks like the Raptors are an improving team, but defense has not been their strong suit. They’re just 21st in defensive efficiency, 25th in opponent floor percentage, and 26th in effective field goal rate allowed so far in this young season. I think that makes it extremely difficult to contain Victor Wembenyama and a Spurs team that has looked excellent through their three games. Toronto also just played last night, a game that had a ton of possessions and must have worn the Raptors out at least somewhat for tonight’s contest. With the Spurs featuring a highly efficient offense, I think they can score with ease and hang another big number on the Raptors tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

This total comes with the assumption that Phoenix is capable of stopping someone on defense, and that’s simply not the case. The Suns were never shaping up as a solid defensive squad no matter what their owner wants to say in a Twitter spat with podcasters. That has proven true on the court so far as they’ve allowed every opponent to clear this total, earning ranks of 28th in effective field goal defense, 29th in defensive efficiency, and 30th in opponent floor percentage.

Now they’re likely missing their two best perimeter defenders in Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks for a game that projects to be up-tempo and feature minimal defense overall. While the Jazz are rarely going to impress anyone this season, I have to take their home/road splits from the past couple years into consideration here and expect another solid outing against a bad defense.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-43 (-10.18 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.