Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/25

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Stanford @ Miami (-22.5): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is a convergence of situational spots going in opposite directions for each team, and I think it results in a blowout win for Miami. Every year there’s a Mario Cristobal implosion game, you can just about set your watch to it, and that’s what the Hurricanes are looking to bounce back from tonight. Last year it was a game at Georgia Tech that derailed their undefeated season, and the next game they came out and demolished Wake Forest at home by 28 points.

So expect the Canes to get back on track here in a game where style points suddenly matter, especially against what is still a bad Stanford team in a horrible situational spot. After a massive upset of FSU, the Cardinal have to go all the way across the country for this one against a mad Miami squad, so it’s a custom-made letdown spot if I’ve ever seen one. The spread is kind of awkward at just north of 4 touchdowns, but I like it a lot better below the key number of 24 so I’ll play the tease with the Canes here.

Boston College @ Louisville (-18.5): 6:30 PM CT on ACC Network

As the team that handed Miami their first loss, this Louisville squad could very well be in a letdown spot of their own here, but that’s why I want to adjust the number down. They should be able to do whatever they want to this pitiful Boston College squad that is winless in ACC play without facing a tough schedule at all. The Eagles have only faced two somewhat strong opponents all year, losing by 31 and 41 points.

That’s the result of a defense that ranks 132nd in yards per point and 125th in points per play allowed. Louisville’s offense is getting better and better as Miller Moss settles into the Jeff Brohm scheme, and I expect them to put up a big number today. BC’s offense that is outside the top-100 in most efficiency metrics just won’t be able to keep up, and I see them falling by at least 3 touchdowns to arguably the best team they’ve seen all year.

Colorado @ Utah (-6.5): 9:15 PM CT on ESPN

This is another spot where I’m banking on a bounce back from a vastly superior team. Utah losing the Holy War last week will not be sitting well with them, especially since it puts them in a spot with zero margin for error in the Big12 race. So style points are going to matter for the Utes going forward, and a team that’s this dominant both at home and against weak opponents should roll.

Colorado is probably feeling themselves after a win over my Cyclones and then a bye week, but they’ve shown zero ability to be competitive on the road this season. They also really struggle against mobile quarterbacks, and Devon Dampier should be able to go off against the Buffs tonight. Utah’s defense should also be fired up tonight, and under the lights at Rice-Eccles is a really tough environment for a visiting offense to operate. So to be able to adjust this spread below a touchdown makes me very comfortable in backing an angry and talented Utah squad.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Texas Tech First Half Team Total Over 27.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Barricade the door, batten down the hatches, hide the women and children, whatever cliché like that you want to use, they all apply today. This game is liable to get ugly and out of hand early, as Texas Tech comes off their first loss in a thriller last week. The Red Raiders suddenly find themselves in a position where style points start to matter, so I think they absolutely destroy poor Oklahoma State today.

The Cowboys being so bad offensively helps hold down the game total here, which in turn depresses Tech’s team totals. So I’m happy to back them in this way considering they’re second nationally in first half scoring, and lead the country in first half points at home with 32.3 per game. Tech put 48 first half points on Kent State who allows the second-most per game before halftime, and the team allowing the most happens to be Oklahoma State. With Behren Morton back at QB it’s very possible this is 21-0 after just one quarter, so I love this way of betting on a Red Raiders bounce back today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-30 (-7.88 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.