Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/20

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 @ Detroit Lions: 6:00 PM CT on ABC

The reason Baker Mayfield is the league MVP in my mind right now is because of what he doesn’t have around him. Absolutely zero consistency with the health of his weapons on a week-to-week basis, yet the Bucs are 5-1 overall, 4-2 ATS, and 6-0 as a teaser leg. There are plenty of question marks in his receiving corps again tonight, although reports suggest that Mike Evans will be a key returning player.

It hasn’t mattered all season as Tampa is never out of a game, and I don’t think it will matter tonight against a severely depleted Detroit secondary. This game might get wild, but holding 13 points in my back pocket is a lot of value with a team that never goes away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Detroit Lions Over 46: 6:00 PM CT on ABC

One of the weapons Mayfield will be without tonight is Bucky Irving, so that will have a significant impact on Tampa’s ground game as the backup RB’s have not looked good running the ball. The Bucs also boast one of the league’s best run defenses though, consistently holding great running backs to minimal production.

Detroit loves to run it, but I think they’ll have to shift that approach here, especially if they have to compensate for Mayfield shredding their secondary that’s full of backups. So I’m seeing a lot of throwing in this game by two offenses that are elite through the air, and that should amount to enough points to clear this adjusted total.

Houston Texans/Seattle Seahawks Under 48.5: 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Last we saw Houston, they were putting 44 points on an absolute MASH unit of a Baltimore defense. I’m not taking that as a sign of any growth from an offense that up to that point looked like one of the weakest in the league, and tonight they have to go into a hostile environment against a strong Seattle defense. So I’m not expecting much production out of the Texans in this game despite having a bye week to prepare, as their offensive line issues are going to hurt them against Seattle’s pass rush.

But Houston still has arguably the best defense in the league, and their biggest strength is against the pass. This Seattle offense is unfortunately one-dimensional as they rank 31st in rush EPA, so they’ll play right into Houston’s hand, have a tough time moving the ball, and help keep this game under the adjusted total.

MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (+110)

0.25 Unit – Tez Johnson Anytime TD (+400)

0.25 Unit – Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+160)

0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 87.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Tory Horton Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Woody Marks Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:08 PM CT on FOX

I’m surprised to see Seattle starting George Kirby on short rest in this game since it’s for all the marbles, so he must be an opener of sorts before they lean on their elite pitching depth and bullpen. But Vladdy will have a shot at him right away in the first inning, and the Toronto star has had plenty of success with a career .417 average and 1.250 OPS against the Mariner righty. And in Kirby’s previous start in this series, Vladdy went a triple shy of the cycle for 7 bases in 3 at-bats against him before Kirby was pulled. In a Game 7 you expect the stars to show up, which is what I’m expecting from Guerrero in this one, so I’ll take a shot at this nice plus price.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-23 (+2.22 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.