Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/19

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs -5.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

The Chiefs are severely overpriced here as we’ve come all the way back around to them being heavy favorites after one high-profile good win. Laying 11.5 points in a divisional game is generally not smart, but knocking 7 points off is something I’m willing to do. While the Raiders have been a thorn in KC’s side the past few meetings, this Vegas team is looking about as rough as it gets, last week’s win over the pitiful Titans notwithstanding.

As the Chiefs get Rashee Rice back and look to unleash him on the league, the revitalized passing game should have plenty of success against an awful secondary. The Raiders have already given up 40 and 41 points to competent offenses in their road games, and if KC wants to they should be able to replicate that, making this adjusted number pretty easy to cover.

New York Giants +14.5 @ Denver Broncos: 3:05 PM CT on CBS

This is just a really tough spot for Denver, and getting 14 points against them is too good to pass up. The Broncos have been in a travel nightmare, going from Denver to the east coast on a short week, then straight to London, then all the way back to elevation in Colorado with no bye week. That is going to have an impact on the players, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise, and the thought of them winning by more than two touchdowns is laughable to me.

The offense is looking awful against any team with a good defense and some teams without, so a Giants squad that is playing well defensively has a real opportunity to capitalize and keep this game tight. The Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo show will probably slow down a bit against an elite Denver defense, but I think their rest advantage will play a role there too. Bottom line is the Giants are playing revitalized while the Broncos will be playing tired, and I have to jump on the opportunity to catch this many points.

Washington Commanders/Dallas Cowboys Over 47.5: 3:25 PM CT on FOX

This total rocketed up from the open of 49, a product of Dallas doing nothing but get into shootouts. It’s also buoyed by news that both Terry McLaurin should return for Washington and CeeDee Lamb could be back for the Cowboys, so moving the total down below where it started is great value for an impending shootout. Whenever Dak Prescott is healthy, these teams get into high-flying affairs and today should be no different on the turf at Jerry World.

Prescott’s numbers are incredible right now, and he hasn’t had one of the league’s best receivers available for essentially four games. But he’ll need to keep putting up those stats to compensate for a defense that ranks 31st in EPA/play and success rate, while not exactly playing a schedule of elite offenses. Washington boasts a top-10 offense while dealing with injuries to several stars including Jayden Daniels, and the only time Dallas has faced a top-10 offense they gave up 40 points. Look for both teams to go up and down the field here and clear an adjusted total that is very low for Cowboy games.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Washington Commanders Team Total Over 27 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

It gives me nothing but sadness to do this, but I need to have some objectivity when it comes to my Cowboys. The defense is a dumpster fire that keeps getting gasoline poured on it week in and week out, there’s no sugarcoating things. Ranking second-to-last in EPA/play and success rate like I mentioned above, along with dead last in EPA/play against the pass makes it easy for any competent offense to come into Dallas and hang a big number. I mean come on, the Giants did it with Russell Wilson, and the Jets even managed 22 points against them, so this is not a serious group. Washington should take out some frustrations from Monday night while looking to seize control of the division, and that should equal points in bunches.

NFL (0.5 Unit) San Francisco 49ers Team Total Under 24 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

We should start taking Atlanta’s defense more seriously, as good draft picks and the Raheem Morris scheme have them playing at a high level. Only one opposing offense has gone over this total against them, and that was Washington in a game where they were scrambling to make up a 15-point 4th quarter deficit. Otherwise, this defense that is 5th in overall EPA/play and 4th against the pass has slowed down a list of good offensive teams.

San Francisco has a lot of question marks coming into this game, as it’s anyone’s guess who will start at quarterback and which of their laundry list of injured skill position players will be available. Given that Christian McCaffrey seems healthy and the Falcons are much more vulnerable to the run, I think the 49ers keep it on the ground. That should bleed clock and limit possessions, especially with Atlanta so good at running the ball too, so I’m not seeing enough opportunities for San Fran to clear this total.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Rashee Rice Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+165)

0.75 Unit – Quinshon Judkins Alt Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (+120)

0.5 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+110)

0.75 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rico Dowdle Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Mason Taylor Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mason Taylor Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

0.5 Unit – Ladd McConkey Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Pickens Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+160)

1 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Zach Ertz Alt Over 5.5 Receptions (+130)

0.5 Unit – Zach Ertz Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+240)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Alt Over 7.5 Receptions (+425)

0.75 Unit – Jeremy McNichols Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 120.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Drake London Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+130)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-22 (+2.69 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.