Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/18

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)

Maryland/UCLA Over 45.5: 6:00 PM CT on FS1

We have to start considering the possibility that DeShaun Foster was the worst coach in college football this year. His firing has apparently woken up this UCLA team, and the offense in particular, as they’ve been extremely impressive in two games with interim coach Tim Skipper at the helm. Dropping 42 on Penn State was eye-popping, and maybe equally impressive was 38 points on the road as they dodged one of the most custom-made letdown spots in recent memory.

If the Bruins have unlocked Nico Iamaleava, watch out, because his raw talent can take an offense a long way if his attitude doesn’t trip them up. I think they remain aggressive against a Maryland team that has benefited from a soft schedule but struggles against the pass when you look closely. The Terps bring an excellent passing offense of their own though, and UCLA continues to make things easy on opposing quarterbacks and is 124th in stop rate. I don’t think books have adjusted to the situation in LA yet, so being able to knock 7 points off this total makes it very appealing and I see a comfortable over coming.

Hawaii/Colorado State Over 46.5: 6:00 PM CT on Mountain West Network

This is another opportunity to buy low on a situation that I don’t think has been accounted for by oddsmakers. That would be Colorado State’s resurgence offensively behind new quarterback Jackson Brousseau, who has shined in his 6 quarters of work replacing Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. I think he can continue that against a Hawaii defense that is just 75th in stop rate, 95th in points per play allowed, and always tends to struggle when they come to the mainland.

But the Warriors have really kicked the offense into high gear with Micah Alejado developing quickly and getting back to full health. Colorado State’s schedule makes their defense look better than it truly is, as they’re just 101st in stop rate and really can’t stop the run. That defense gets even more vulnerable with their new style that is conducive to shootouts, and being able to knock 7 points off this total is great value for a style of game that I don’t think the books really see coming.

Georgia State/Georgia Southern Over 52.5: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

What happens when you put two defenses on the same field that rank 130th and 132nd in stop rate? We’re about to find out, as that’s where Georgia Southern and Georgia State rank respectively, along with 116th and 134th in yards per point allowed, and 133rd and 135th in points per play. So I have no idea where the stops are coming from in this game, as neither defense can slow down a parked car.

These offenses aren’t exactly elite, but Southern is at least going to play fast and throw it all over the yard behind JC French which should initiate a shootout. That would be the norm for these two rivals, whose past 5 meetings have averaged 58.6 points, and being able to adjust this total down through several key numbers is good value in that scenario.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Wyoming/Air Force Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN

I don’t care who, what, when, where, how, why – Air Force overs are an automatic play for me. The Falcons are inarguably the worst defense in the country, from total points and yardage, to efficiency metrics like stop rate and points-per-play, Air Force is dead last. They’re also playing fairly fast on offense, 28th in plays per game, creating more possessions and opportunities for the opponent to take advantage of them allowing 4.28 points per drive, also worst in the country.

So if the Falcons can’t stop a nose bleed, any offense can waltz in and hang another big number on them, as all of their FBS opponents have scored at least 34 points. That creates a very low floor for scoring which puts a total like this very much into play, and I truly don’t understand what it’s doing south of 60 points. Wyoming has their own defensive issues too, and this Falcons offense is actually really good, not just in catch-up mode, so I see a ton of points here in perfect conditions for a shootout.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) South Florida Team Total Over 48.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

Ok, it looks like South Florida is angry. The Bulls have been raging since their blowout loss at Miami, and are making up for lost time by hanging massive numbers on everyone they see. Putting 63 on FCS South Carolina State is one thing, but following it up with 54 and 63 in their next two games is another thing entirely. USF has CFP aspirations, and they seem to understand the assignment where style points are going to matter if they even make it through the tough American Conference unscathed.

So even with an enormously important game next week at Memphis, I think the Bulls come to play tonight and can hang another massive number. Florida Atlantic doesn’t have a prayer of stopping USF on the road if the Bulls are trying to run it up, as the Owls are just 107th in stop rate and rank dead last nationally in opponent yards per point. This FAU squad gave up 55 at home to Memphis who is also in the style points business, and I expect them to be a victim again tonight as USF shows out with ESPN in the house.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 33-17 (+12.09 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.