Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/16

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Steelers/Cincinnati Bengals Over 44 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

To be clear, these are not elite offenses, certainly not Cincinnati’s without Joe Burrow and being so plagued by turnovers. Pittsburgh’s is at least around league average on an EPA/play basis, but I don’t think that’s going to matter with the kind of game I see unfolding. I’m expecting a ton of passing tonight, and so are the books as they have Joe Flacco’s attempts prop set at a sky-high 36.5 which is Dak Prescott territory.

Don’t let their results or stats fool you, the Steelers defense is still very vulnerable against the pass, and Flacco having more time to work with this elite receiver group should put the Bengals in position for some success. And Pittsburgh would be wise to throw it all over this awful Bengals defense that is 29th in EPA/play against the pass and overall. I’m also expecting Cincy to get up for this game as it’s an opportunity for them to support Flacco against a division rival, so this should be more competitive and a back-and-forth affair will generate enough points to clear this low total.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via Fanduel)

0.75 Unit – DK Metcalf Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Noah Fant Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jonnu Smith Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+145)

0.25 Unit – Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)

MLB (0.5 Unit Each) Tyler Glasnow Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+130) & Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 5:08 PM CT on TBS

The Brewers offense has gone quieter than a morgue at exactly the wrong time, and Tyler Glasnow is only going to make things worse for them. Milwaukee hasn’t done much of anything at the plate in 5 straight games now, and they have horrible numbers against Glasnow that should extend their woes. The Dodger righty has held their roster to a cumulative .141 average and .510 OPS for their careers, with their three most dangerous hitters going a combined 2-for-30 against him.

Glasnow absolutely locked down a much better Phillies lineup in the NLDS, so he’s in great form just like the rest of the LA staff. He’s also shut down the Brewers already this season, facing them in consecutive starts back in July. Those games saw him allow 6 total hits with 1 earned run, and that’s back when Milwaukee was red hot. This is just not a good situation for the Brew Crew, and I think Glasnow takes advantage of their untimely slump for an excellent outing.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Max Scherzer Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:33 PM CT on FS1

The Toronto bats had been colder than Milwaukee’s but finally came alive last night. If that continues tonight, I think it will have an unforeseen impact on Scherzer’s hits prop in this game. The Blue Jays could really benefit from Scherzer going deeper into this game and giving their bullpen a break, so some run support would go a long way to keeping him in the game.

That will give Seattle an opportunity to rack up more hits against the veteran righty, who has given up at least 4 hits in 14 of his 18 starts on the year. Scherzer does not come into October in very good form, and there’s a reason Toronto didn’t use him against the Yankees, so a Seattle lineup that has hit very consistently in this series should be able to get to him for enough hits to cash this juicy return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-16 (+8.73 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.