Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/15

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Jacksonville State Team Total Over 27.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Delaware has been impressive so far in their first season at the FBS level, but I think their porous defense is in trouble against Jacksonville State tonight. The Blue Hens come into this game ranked 128th in EPA/play allowed against the run, and 127th against the pass, both of which are highly problematic but more so the rushing.

That’s because Jacksonville State is one of the best running offenses in the country, ranked 8th in EPA/play on the ground, and gashing teams for the 14th-best yards-per-carry average nationally. Despite all that running, the Gamecocks operate at a very fast pace as they’re 25th in plays per game, so I’m not too worried about having enough time to score this many points. I’m suspicious of Delaware as a road favorite in this game, but I’ll choose to back JSU this way given the favorable matchup their offense has here.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Shane Bieber Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:08 PM CT on FS1

I don’t believe that the Blue Jays want to expose Bieber to a long outing period, much less on the road in a Game 3 where there’s zero margin for error. Toronto pulled their ace Kevin Gausman at the first sign of trouble in Game 1 of this series, and gave the early hook to Bieber after he was struggling in his lone playoff start against the Yankees last round.

Bieber didn’t even make it out of the third inning there, so I’m suspicious that they’ll let him go a full five frames today. The Jays losing this game essentially ends the season, so I think they lean on the bullpen more than a starter who’s coming off injury and was brought in more for spot starts.

MLB (0.25 Unit) JP Crawford Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:08 PM CT on FS1

You have to go a long way down the board to find Crawford in a game with plenty of higher-profile hitters. But I think he’s worth a shot here to just get one measly base since he has great success against Jays starter Shane Bieber. He’s gone 6-for-12 lifetime against Bieber, all singles, which is all I’m asking for here. Crawford has been a consistent lineup piece in this postseason, and has 6 hits with 9 total bases in his 7 October games so this price on just 1 base is worth a small shot for me.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-18 (+7.58 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.