Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Western Kentucky Team Total Under 33.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPNU
Western Kentucky’s offense was set to do big things this season with an up-tempo style and high passing volume behind Maverick McIvor. And it did, for two weeks, against Sam Houston who might be the worst team in FBS, and against FCS North Alabama, but really hasn’t since. The next four games all saw the Hilltoppers go under this total with 26.5 points on average as McIvor’s passing volume has dropped significantly, and I think they fall short of it again tonight.
The key to me will be the run game, and I’m talking about both teams. For WKU it should be another game where they lean more on the run as Florida International is 114th in yards per rush allowed. But the Panthers should attack WKU on the ground as well since the Tops are 130th in that same category, along with 123rd in rushing explosives allowed. So if both teams are keeping it on the ground and having success, WKU’s possessions will be limited and they just won’t have the opportunity to reach this high of a total.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:08 PM CT on TBS
Regression is here for Yamamoto, and I think a desperate Brewers team takes advantage tonight. The LA righty had a stretch of unbelievable pitching that was unsustainable, and the regression monster comes for everyone eventually, evidenced by his short outing against the Phillies last week. Milwaukee is very similar to the Phillies in terms of scoring metrics, both standard and weighted, so they should be able to get to Yamamoto too if he’s truly falling off a bit.
They know how to do it as well, since Yamamoto’s most disastrous outing of the season came right here in Milwaukee when he didn’t even make it out of the first inning back in July. The Brewers need to do everything possible to manufacture runs and get to the Dodger bullpen if they want to avoid an 0-2 hole, and I think they manage to do it.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-17 (+8.30 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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