Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/13

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) James Cook Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN

Somehow the Falcons are arguably the league's best pass defense, allowing the fewest yards per game, completions, attempts, and ranking 4th in EPA/play against the pass. But you can definitely run on them as Atlanta is just 25th in EPA/play against the run. So Cook should be in for a heavy workload here as Buffalo looks to control this game and keep their suspect defense off the field, and that should result in clearing this attempts total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Josh Allen Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN

In that same vein, I would expect Allen to utilize his legs more given Atlanta’s defensive prowess against the pass. The Falcons haven’t faced a quarterback with Allen’s running ability yet this season, although it’s worth remembering that Baker Mayfield was his team’s leading rusher in the season opener so they’re vulnerable. Allen has a tendency to run more in high-profile games like this primetime spot, so I think he clears what is essentially the standard prop total for him lately.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Bijan Robinson Over 110.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN

This is a small number in the context of what Bijan has done this season already. He’s averaging 146.0 all-purpose yards per game this year, and has gone over this total in all four games. That includes just sneaking over it against the Panthers when his touches were significantly limited in a blowout loss. Buffalo is extremely vulnerable to talented running backs beating them on the ground and in the air, as they rank 30th in rush yards allowed per game and EPA/play against the run. I see a heavy dose of Bijan in this game with some big plays likely coming, so this total should be easy to clear.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Drake London Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN

Atlanta will be without wide receiver Darnell Mooney tonight, and that’s good news for London. His target share skyrockets in games when Mooney doesn’t play, and he’s also been targeted much more at home this season. Buffalo’s defense is also good against the pass, but pass attempts have to go somewhere and London is uncoverable when they scheme him open on short routes. So I’m expecting a lot of that kind of work and enough catches to clear this alt total at a nice plus-money price.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

It’s time for Bill to break out on a big stage. The budding star runner has already had a couple of big games this season, but with him getting more and more involved in the run game every week, this is a great spot for him to have another in primetime. The opportunity will be there as Washington will have to rely on the ground game with several wide receiver injuries hampering the pass attack. Plus, Chicago is a far better pass defense than run defense, so I see the rookie having a big workload that translates to a big night on the ground.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

The Bears might have a solid pass defense, but they’ve been vulnerable to tight ends who are a key part of the opposing team’s offense. I watched Jake Ferguson rack up 13 catches against them when my Cowboys lost in Chicago, so the potential is there for Ertz tonight. The target volume should also be there with Terry McLaurin out, Deebo Samuel questionable, and Jayden Daniels having such a good connection with him, so 4 catches shouldn’t be much to ask tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 4:03 PM CT on FOX

That’s two very quiet games in a row for Vladdy after almost singlehandedly ending New York’s season. I think he can and will get back on track, and tonight’s matchup offers a great opportunity. He’s the bat that Mariners starter Logan Gilbert wants to see coming the least, as Vladdy has a career .400 average and 1.404 OPS against the Seattle righty with 2 home runs and 2 doubles. At a plus-money return, I’ll take a shot that the Toronto slugger gets back to his usual ways in this game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 4:03 PM CT on FOX

This Yesavage kid is one of several impressive rookie starters we’ve seen this season, and I think he continues to shine today. He’s already gotten postseason experience in a much bigger spot than this, as he faced down the Yankees lineup in the ALDS and came away with 11 strikeouts. New York is a little more strikeout-prone against righties than Seattle, but the Mariners still tend to swing and miss quite a bit. Yesavage has some nasty stuff and shouldn’t find the moment too big for him, so I like him to reach this K prop today.

MLB (1 Unit) Blake Snell Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:08 PM CT on TBS

Snell is coming into this game with plenty of extra rest, having last pitched a week ago when he dominated the Phillies. That lineup is arguably better against lefties than Milwaukee is, and Snell pitched 6 innings of 1-hit ball that day. While Snell doesn’t have a ton of experience against the Brewers, he has limited them to a cumulative .152 average and .475 OPS in the limited action he has had.

Snell appears very locked in right now as the Dodgers are getting the vintage version at just the right time, and I think that helps Dave Roberts lengthen the leash. I’m convinced he wants his starters like Snell going as deep as possible to keep the awful LA bullpen from blowing this postseason run, so 6 innings seems more like a floor than a ceiling tonight for the Dodger ace.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-16 (+5.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.