Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/06

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs Team Total Under 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

Are the Chiefs back because they turned an 0-2 start into a 2-2 record coming into tonight? The talking heads would love for you to believe it, but I’m not convinced since those wins were against the hapless Giants and an awful Ravens defense where Lamar played half the game. And they’ve only gone over this team total in that game against the Baltimore defense that’s a house of horrors right now, so let’s cool the hype about the KC offense.

But maybe also start hyping up this Jacksonville defense, that actually leads the league in EPA/play and overall success rate. There are some schedule considerations to factor into those ranks, but this is not your typical Jaguars defense. I think they’ll show up tonight to hold KC under this number that gives you the hook on the right side of a key number.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Travis Etienne Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I was convinced that Liam Coen going to Jacksonville would result in Trevor Lawrence finally breaking out, but instead Coen has unlocked Travis Etienne. This is eerily similar to Bucky Irving’s breakout last season when Coen was calling plays for him, as Etienne has had some outstanding games so far. He has gone over this total in 3 of 4 games, only falling short against the elite Houston defense. But the Chiefs should struggle to contain him as they rank 29th in EPA/play against the run, and this low total should be easy for Etienne to clear.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Blake Snell Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 5:08 PM CT on TBS

Just like in Snell’s last start, I’m convinced that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts knows he has to let his starter eat up innings. This LA bullpen is too much of a liability and moving to the NLDS has not changed the team’s approach to their pitching, as even Shohei Ohtani was allowed to pitch 6 full innings on Saturday, his longest outing of the year.

So Snell should be in for another lengthy start here, and he faces a team that he should be able to control. While the Phillies are a very good offense against lefties in general, they just can’t seem to get to Snell who has held them to a collective .168 average and .569 OPS in his career. He also just held them to 2 hits in 7 innings of work a few weeks ago, so in a game where LA does not want to see their bullpen cost them, I think Snell gets over this outs prop with ease.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-22 (+2.83 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.