Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 10/02

Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Parlay (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams -2: 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

With Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall announced out for this game, the spread took off like a runaway freight train. It’s honestly an excessive line move, and part of me is tempted to tease this the other direction, but I’d rather get back underneath the original number. Injury problems or not, this is a divisional game where they’ve played 4 straight one-possession games, so I prefer to lay a short number.

The problem for San Francisco is just a complete lack of weapons offensively, as they’ll send their backup QB out to throw to practice squad receiving options. The Rams have too much explosive potential on offense with how Puka Nacua has been playing for the Niners to keep up, and no Nick Bosa should mean plenty of time for Puka to get open. The Rams have won 3 straight in the series, and I think they cover this adjusted number against the injury-plagued and unlucky 49ers.

Sam Houston @ New Mexico St +8.5: 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I’m struggling to see why Sam Houston is favored in this game, so being able to pad the margin to more than a full possession is very enticing here. The Bearkats are one of the worst teams in the country, so laying points on the road is just strange even though NMSU isn’t much better. But the Aggies have played well at home, and should be motivated to bounce back there after two disappointing road losses.

I think the Aggies can find success through the air against the country’s 106th-ranked defense in EPA per pass, along with being 119th in passing success rate allowed. NMSU’s defense sets up well tonight though, as the Bearkats are a very run-heavy team headed straight into a top-10 run defense both by EPA and success rate. Sam Houston’s shaky QB situation is not what you want in a conference road game, so I’m happy to get the extra cushion in a game with a live underdog.

Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via Fanduel)

0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Alt Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (+102)

0.25 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Davante Adams Anytime TD (+105)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Connelly Early Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (+130; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

Red Sox rookie Connelly Early is going to be really good someday. But asking him to be elite in this situation is far too much to put on him, and I think the Yankees can notch some hits. Only needing 4 hits to cash this juicy return isn’t much from a team that led baseball in OPS and wOBA against lefties like Early, along with ranking 5th in batting average this season. I’ll be surprised if Early keeps his lunch down going into Yankee Stadium for a winner-take-all game, and I’m sure he’s on a short leash which this number is counting on. But I have to take a shot on the low number and juicy return given how dangerous the Yankees are against lefties.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-24 (+5.94 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.