Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/30

Locks

MLB/WNBA (0.5 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+110; Odds via DraftKings)

Garrett Crochet Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-158): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN

Crochet is about as reliable as it gets on this prop, which is why books are attaching such prohibitive juice to it. He’s gone over this number in 11 of his past 12 starts, and only fallen short of it 7 times all season. In all 4 meetings with the Yankees this year, Crochet has also gone at least 6 innings which is saying something with how good New York is against lefties like him. I know it’s the playoffs and things get thrown into flux in a heartbeat, but having Crochet on the mound gives Boston their best hope in this game, so I think he has a reasonably long leash tonight.

Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces (-345): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Give credit where it’s due to the Fever for getting to this point with as many injuries as they’ve suffered this season. But this is where it ends in my opinion, and I’m willing to take the Aces at a moneyline price when it’s tied to the other leg of this parlay. The Aces will have a raucous home court advantage tonight, and should be able to use their depth to push a thin and tired Indiana roster. Plus, the best player in the world plays for Vegas, and I think A’ja Wilson turns in a masterpiece to send her squad to the finals.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) A’ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This is a big number for Wilson, and actually above her postseason average of 24.7 PPG, and above her average of 22.6 PPG in 7 meetings with the Fever this year. But this is a close-out game, at home, for the best player on the planet, and she has come to play in these spots without fail. Wilson dropped 38 in the do-or-die Game 3 against Seattle, over half her team’s points, and then 25 in the must-have Game 2 of this series. I think she carries them to a win and clears this total in the process.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-28 (+3.31 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.