Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/28

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I’m not touching a 15-point spread in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean the whole game is untouchable. If the Bills care, this will be a blowout, but I question how much effort they’ll be putting in after building a big lead. That should mean a strong opening quarter for them against a Saints team that has yet to score a point in any first quarter. New Orleans is a cumulative minus-30 in first quarters this season and it’s getting progressively worse for this team that appears to be tanking. If they keep that up, and Buffalo punches in a first-possession touchdown, there’s your easy cover on this number.

NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I’m shocked that this number isn’t at 14.5 or at least 14 flat so that you’re forced to pay a premium for one of the most reliable trends of the past couple seasons. I’ve watched my Cowboys give up so many early points in home games the last couple of years as this defense continues to disappoint, and tonight shouldn’t be any different. First halves in general have been bad for Dallas this season, giving up 21 to the Eagles, 24 to Caleb Williams, and even 13 to Russell Wilson! The Packers should be on a mission tonight after blowing last week’s game, along with wanting to help Micah Parsons embarrass Jerry, so two touchdowns might end up being light work for them by halftime.

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)

Indianapolis Colts/LA Rams Over 42.5: 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I’m not entirely sure what to make of the Colts and their 3-0 start since the competition has been subpar to say the least. But when you only punt once in a 3-game stretch, you’re doing something right offensively and I think they can continue that here. They’ve carved up 2 fairly solid defenses in a row for 70 total points, and LA has had their defense exposed in consecutive weeks so Indiana Jones and the Colts should continue putting up big numbers offensively. But Indy hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber yet, and the Rams will be in a foul mood after blowing last week’s game so look for a relative shootout that clears this adjusted total.

Chicago Bears/Las Vegas Raiders Over 40.5: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

Both of these teams came alive offensively last week, and all it took was facing very suspect defenses. That happens to be something they both have in common, and I think the offenses stay in rhythm as a result. The Bears are still incredibly banged up in the secondary, and Geno Smith has the green light to throw it all over the field so he should have another big game here, especially since he’s back home and indoors. But if Caleb Williams and the Bears offense have been even a little bit unlocked by Ben Johnson now, they’ll be able to pick up where they left off the past two weeks against a Raiders defense that looks bad again, making this adjusted total very easy to clear.

Green Bay Packers PK @ Dallas Cowboys: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I’ll just pretend like I copy-pasted the reasoning above on why Dallas won’t be able to stop the Packers tonight. And I don’t think it will just be the first half, I’m making that play above because of the number. Things are going from bad to worse with my Boys after losing CeeDee Lamb, which is going to make keeping up with the Packers next to impossible. This Green Bay defense is for real, they’ll have an angry Micah Parsons out for blood, and being able to just ask the Packers to win this game is one of the easiest asks of the week in my opinion.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Treyveon Henderson Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jalen Hurts Over 191.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Saquon Barkley Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – James Cook Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Spencer Rattler Over 202.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Chris Olave Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Daniel Jones Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Michael Pittman Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Geno Smith Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tre Tucker Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rome Odunze Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Love Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Matthew Golden Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Dak Prescott Under 236.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-20 (+2.04 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.