Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/26

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on MNNT

After lead-off home runs in consecutive games, the juice has finally returned to where I would expect it to be for Buxton’s bases prop. But he hit those homers against much tougher starting pitchers than he’ll see tonight, so I think he has another good opportunity to clear his bases prop here. Aaron Nola will start for Philadelphia, and he’s really been on the struggle bus since returning from injury, with just 1 of his 7 starts seeing him allow fewer than 3 runs. He’s pitching to a 6.00 ERA at home this season, and against Buxton has allowed a double in 3 at-bats, so I’m looking for the Twins star to continue finishing the season strong.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Sandy Alcantara Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

Speaking of finishing the season strong, Alcantara has shown signs of his old self still being in there somewhere. It’s been a rough season on the whole, but Sandy has been especially good at home lately, and has had a good amount of success against the Mets. In two starts against New York this year, Alcantara has held them to 1 and 2 runs, plus their roster has cumulative numbers of just a .237 average and .723 OPS. With the Mets playing high-leverage games for a wild card berth I don’t trust them to do anything right, but that does help me trust Sandy to limit the damage at home tonight.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Kayla McBride Over 15.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

How will the Lynx respond after the worst collapse in WNBA playoff history? I honestly don’t know, which is why I’m staying away from picking this game, but I think McBride is worth backing for a couple of reasons. If the Lynx do recover mentally and bounce back for this game, it will require their stars to lead the charge.

But since Phoenix has been excellent at limiting the contributions of Napheesa Collier this season, McBride will have to pick up some scoring slack. She’s done that for the most part in games against the Mercury, averaging 16.5 PPG in the 6 meetings this season and 21 in both of these playoff games. in a pivotal Game 3 with the season on the line, I’ll count on McBride to come up big enough to clear this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-18 (+3.49 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.