Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/25

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

This game was sitting at 2.5 points in favor of the Cardinals when it opened on Sunday, but a flurry of sharp action moved it through zero which should not be taken lightly. There’s plenty of reason for that move, and I’m focused mostly on the injury situation for both teams. Arizona is very banged up, especially at key positions, losing James Conner for the season, while star corner Will Johnson is doubtful and there are cluster injuries on the offensive line.

Seattle meanwhile gets Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon back for their secondary to slow down an Arizona passing attack that has looked sluggish. Thanks to the early season Kubiak sugar high, Sam Darnold is the top-rated QB by PFF and should carve up a vulnerable and shorthanded Arizona secondary. Plus, the Seahawks might just have Arizona’s number, winning 7 straight against them while going 6-1 ATS, so I’ll lay the short number tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Seattle Seahawks -0.5 First Half (+105; Odds via Caesars)

Seattle has been starting fast behind that surprisingly explosive passing game, and I think it helps them to another strong first half. And this is a spot where you want nothing to do with Kyler Murray, who has worst-in-history results against his divisional opponents. In Murray’s 30 starts against NFC West foes, the Cardinals are 6-24 ATS for the first half number, including 1-14 over his past 15 games. That’s the worst cover percentage of any quarterback the past 20 years, so I’m riding the trend and backing Seattle early.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Tory Horton Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.1 Unit – Tory Horton Anytime TD (+400)

0.25 Unit – Trey McBride Over 6.5 Receptions (-105)

0.25 Unit – Trey McBride Anytime TD (+175)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on SNY

This total at this price point is simply too good to pass up. McLean is the real deal, and a very consistent pitcher especially with his swing-and-miss results. He hasn’t been allowing solid contact through any of his 7 big league starts, and has gone over this strikeout prop in 6 of them. The only time he didn’t, he recorded 5 K’s against the Phillies in his second start against them. The Cubs have never seen McLean’s stuff, and while they aren’t typically a strikeout-prone team against righties, they’ve been whiffing a lot more the past month-plus so I’ll take a shot on this lower number and juicy return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Bradley Blalock Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

Blalock is truly awful at home, so if this game was at Coors I’d be fading him to the moon. He’s still bad on the road though, with a 5.61 ERA and .296 opponent on-base average which make him worth targeting here. I think the key for me is how many lefthanded bats the Mariners can send up, and those are what crush Blalock for a .360 average and 1.018 OPS this season. I’m hoping Seattle kept the celebrating to a minimum last night after clinching the AL West but only being 1 game out for the AL’s best record, and a focused M’s squad will knock Blalock around tonight.

Degenerates

NFL Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals First Half Under 21.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I'm not in love with this pick, but if you can grab the 21.5 number that's only at Fanduel, I think it's worth a shot. Thursday night games just don't tend to start fast, with both teams easing into the game given their lack of rest. And in this matchup, the Cardinals playing at the league's slowest tempo will help limit possessions and scoring chances. They also won't find much success against Seattle's elite defense that's getting healthier, so the biggest worry is Seattle running it up, but this is still a good number to look under on.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-16 (+2.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.