Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/24

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:05 PM CT on MNNT

Buxton has cooled off considerably the past couple of months, particularly in September where he’s only batting .219 with a .753 OPS. But that doesn't mean this price point isn’t worth a shot in a game like this. He’s still averaging 1.9 bases per game on the month, so I would’ve expected a price closer to even money or perhaps having to lay juice. Buck also has a favorable matchup here, as he’s 1-for-2 lifetime with a double against Jacob deGrom, and I don’t expect the Rangers ace to pitch very long in this game given the situation for Texas. So extra opportunities later in the game against September call-up relievers should give Buxton a great chance to get over this number.

MLB (0.25 Unit Each) Tanner Bibee Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115) & Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

I like the juice on both of these props, and I think at least one of them is getting home against the collapsing Tigers tonight which would turn a small profit. It’s been a nightmarish two weeks for Detroit, as they haven’t been able to hit or put up runs, ranking in the bottom-third of the league for every major offensive metric. Plus, they’ve been the 6th-most strikeout-prone team in that stretch.

So Bibee, who can be a bit of a mystery from game to game, is someone I’m interested in backing here at these price points. He has cashed both of these numbers in both of his starts against the Tigers this season, so he knows how to control that lineup even when they aren’t imploding. And with the mojo that’s going on with the Guardians right now, I think the extra emotional boost gets him a cash on both props again tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+102; Odds via DraftKings)

Chicago White Sox @ NY Yankees (-382): 6:05 PM CT on YES

Nobody, from the books to the betting market to anyone with a brain, thinks the Yankees are losing this game. I’d have to agree, as their ace Max Fried takes the mound against the White Sox who are making tee times for next week as they’re set to lose their 100th game. Fried has led the Yankees to wins in 6 of his past 7 starts as the bats have finally given him stable run support.

Chicago is about average against lefties overall, but none of their September call-ups have seen him before so it will be a struggle tonight. If the Yankees provide any decent run support at all against what appears to be a bullpen game, they’ll send the White Sox to triple digits in the loss column tonight.

Garrett Crochet Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-166): 6:07 PM CT on NESN

This number is the whole reason I’m including the Yankees above. At just 17.5 this is a layup of a total, but of course the juice is prohibitive to playing it straight so I’ll play the parlay game again. Crochet is typically a machine, going over this total in 25 of his 31 starts this season with an average of just over 19 outs per start.

He’s in the thick of the Cy Young race so he’ll want to stay in longer, plus the Red Sox desperately need a win here to stay on the right side of the Wild Card picture so their ace will be utilized more heavily tonight. Crochet is also a big problem for Toronto, whose roster is batting a cumulative .117 with a .401 OPS against him, so I think he has a very long outing tonight to easily reach this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-15 (+1.71 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.