Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/22

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Detroit Lions/Baltimore Ravens First Quarter Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

The Lions made a statement last week after being stifled offensively in Week 1, and I have to count on at least some continuation of that. They won’t be able to produce at the same level against the Ravens defense as they did against the pitiful Bears, but I’m looking at their ability to have an effective first possession. Detroit has always been good on their scripted drives, and I don’t think that changes too much without Ben Johnson at the helm.

I’m also looking at the essentially the same thing for Baltimore, whose run game was stifled by the Browns last week but they still lead the league in overall EPA per play. They should be able to have success with their scripted plays, and cut through a Detroit defense that is still very weak in the back end. That creates an easy path to 10 or more early points in my opinion, and I’m ok with a push on 10 if we see a touchdown and field goal drive.

Bonus Prop Pick (0.5 Unit): DeAndre Hopkins Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

D-Hop has been a very reliable big-play receiver so far in the unpredictable Ravens receiving room, going for 35 and 64 yards. He’s also had a single reception over this prop total in both games, so his usage type allows for him to reach this number with low volume. With the Lions defense ranked 26th in EPA per play against the pass, the Ravens should have a big night through the air with Hopkins benefiting.

Extra Bonus Prop Pick (0.5 Unit): Zay Flowers Over 5.5 Receptions (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I really think that Baltimore will be wise to throw it consistently tonight, and if they do, Flowers will be another beneficiary. With 7 receptions in both Weeks 1 and 2, Flowers is the favorite and most reliable target for Lamar Jackson, and he should have a favorable matchup here. The Lions defense is particularly weak at slot corner, so if the Ravens can scheme Flowers into matchups against Amik Robertson, he’ll have another busy night.

MLB (1.25 Unit) Chris Sale Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-125; Odds via DraftKings): 6:15 PM CT on MLB Network

Books are forcing my hand on this one, as is the schedule. We’re right on the edge of where I’m willing to lay juice if I’m out of options, and there’s nothing else I want to parlay this with given the short MLB schedule. So I’ll eat the juice because I love the number itself for Sale, who has gone for exactly 9 strikeouts in all 4 games since returning from injury. That includes his last start, at Washington last week, where he wasn’t quite as sharp as he should’ve been with his swing and miss stuff. But the Nationals can’t hit lefties and strike out at the 3rd-highest rate in the league against them, so I have to lay the juice and expect that Sale’s floor is now 9 K’s per game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 23-14 (+5.66 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.