Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/21

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Green Bay Packers -0.5 @ Cleveland Browns: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Until further notice I think we have to treat the Packers as a top-3 team in the league. We already know to treat the Browns as a bottom-3 team in the league, which is why this game comes with a spread of more than a touchdown. I’m not in love with laying that kind of lumber in a road game, but just asking the Packers to win here is much more comfortable.

The Micah Parsons addition is doing wonders to an already talented defense, and I think he makes life difficult on the aging statue that is Joe Flacco. I don’t see the Browns doing much scoring here, and even though Green Bay is riddled with offensive injuries, I think they do enough to squeak out the road win.

LA Rams +10.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I don’t know what got into the Rams against Tennessee, but maybe Matthew Stafford just didn’t want to do training camp and his back is actually fine. That would be a good thing for the Rams today against this fearsome defensive front of the Eagles, but if he has time, he’ll carve that secondary up. The passing attack for LA looks like it’s clicking with Davante Adams, and I just don’t see a lot of talent in the back end of the Philly defense. That should allow the Rams to at the very least find the back door wide open to get inside a big number like this. But Philadelphia has been uninspiring offensively through two weeks, so I’d consider the Rams a live dog and this many points is a nice insurance policy.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks -0.5: 3:05 PM CT on CBS

I’ll gladly pick on another of the league's bottom-3 teams here, as the Saints look like strong contenders for the worst record this season. While they’ve been feisty in two home games against NFC West teams, going on the road to Seattle is going to be a completely different and much tougher task. And I actually don’t care if they continue to be competitive, all I’m asking is for Seattle to win the game. The multi-faceted Seahawks offense shouldn’t have much trouble carving up the Saints defense, as the Clint Kubiak sugar high is still giving them early season success. And with Spencer Rattler getting rattled by the 12th Man, this bad Saints team will fold eventually and send the Seahawks to a win.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I’ll gladly take the Marcus Mariota discount here. With the Commanders having to turn to the backup, they might be one of the rare teams that doesn’t have all that significant of a drop-off. Certainly not from a game-planning perspective, as Mariota is capable of running the same things as Jayden Daniels, just not with the same athleticism. But I think the Commanders will be fine at the quarterback spot today, certainly enough to beat a bad Raiders defense in a terrible situational spot.

It’s really rare to see a team have to start their season on the east coast, go home to the west coast, then back to the east coast on a short week thanks to Monday Night Football. That’s where the Raiders are right now though, and it’s not doing them any favors. Neither is an offense that looks bland with Brock Bowers hobbled, so I think a Washington squad that’s had extra time to prepare for this one wins comfortably and makes the discounted spread look like an overreaction.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via Fanduel)

0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Davante Adams Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bijan Robinson 2+ Anytime Touchdowns (+240)

0.75 Unit – Joe Flacco Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Drake Maye Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Ja’Marr Chase Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – George Pickens Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Rome Odunze Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – DJ Moore Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-19 (+3.66 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.