Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/20

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) UAB/Tennessee Over 69 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:45 PM CT on SEC Network

A lot of bettors are afraid of totals like this nowadays with the clock changes in college football, but I’m not, at least for this situation. Look, there’s a reason Tennessee lost last week against Georgia, and it’s because Josh Heupel never beats Kirby Smart, but he does beat the brakes off teams he can push around. Heupel is a bully, plain and simple, and he’s about to stuff UAB in a locker and take their lunch money today.

Tennessee can name their score here, and honestly in a game where they’re coming off a frustrating loss, they might go over this total on their own. They did it once already this season against FCS East Tennessee, and UAB’s defense is basically on the FCS level. The Blazers have allowed 42 points to FCS Alabama State, 38 to Navy, and 28 to a pathetic Akron offense, and the offense they’ll see today is leagues above anything they’ve experienced so far. But UAB can score too, and I have questions about the Volunteer defense, so I think we see Tennessee go to 4-0 over this total on the season.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon First Half Team Total Over 27 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on BTN

Speaking of bullies, the Ducks have been bullying teams in Eugene this season, and I see them looking to put it on their old Civil War rivals here. Putting 41 on Oklahoma State before halftime was a sign of things to come for Oregon in my opinion, and the defense they’ll see today isn’t a whole lot more competent. Oregon State probably would’ve been run out even worse at Texas Tech last week if not for a 2-hour weather delay that interrupted the first quarter, and they still allowed 28 first half points. The Beavers are not only 129th in points allowed, but are down to 112th nationally in yards allowed and are getting especially carved up through the air. Oregon wants to keep showcasing Dante Moore so they should be throwing early and often, which I think leads to another massive first half number for them.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Florida State Team Total Over 49.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ACC Network

With his seat relatively warm, Mike Norvell and the Seminoles are doing everything they can to erase the memory of last season’s 2-10 record. So that means they’ll have no compunction about hanging a massive number on a very weak opponent. Kent State is giving up the 7th-most yards in the country and is 126th in points allowed, so FSU should be able to name their score today behind Tommy Castellanos and a rejuvenated offense.

The Golden Flashes are also about to experience afternoon Florida humidity, which will wear their bad defense out quickly today. And the last time they went on the road to a hot environment, Texas Tech put 62 on them. That wilting defense is a big reason why I’m not concerned about FSU slowing down late, as even the backups should continue adding scores, and I think they soar over this number.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Purdue Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on NBC

I was duped into thinking this Notre Dame defense would be one of the best in the country this season, if not carry them to a CFP berth. But the loss of Al Golden as the defensive coordinator has been more than the Irish could withstand, and it’s pretty evident in their two losses. They’ve been absolutely atrocious against the pass at 127th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, but today I think it’s the run defense that lets them down.

That phase of the defense hasn’t been great either, ranked 67th nationally, and today they’ll face a very run-centric offense from Purdue. The Boilermakers can really produce on the ground behind Devin Mockobee, and they’re playing a lot better overall than their macro numbers would indicate. Purdue managed 17 points last week despite 3 red-zone turnovers, and I think they can clean that up this week against a Notre Dame defense that hasn’t been forcing mistakes. Two touchdowns is not a lot to ask of a Purdue team that I think keeps this competitive, but would have an opportunity to score in garbage time regardless.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Toledo @ Western Michigan +21: 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Jason Candle as a double-digit favorite? No thanks. Jason Candle laying multiple touchdowns on the road? Extra no thanks. Western Michigan in their MAC opener in a circle-the-wagons spot? Yes please, especially with being able to pad the margin up to three full touchdowns. WMU is better than they look, particularly at home since they took an excellent North Texas team to OT in their last home game, and this should be a maximum effort game from them. Candle has a storied history of not only failing to cover but losing outright as a sizable favorite, so getting the home dog at this kind of number is too good to pass up.

South Carolina @ Missouri -2.5: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Another mea culpa here: I was wrong about South Carolina for this season. The offense stinks, with or without LaNorris Sellers, and I can’t see them winning a road game like this. Sellers does seem like he’ll play tonight, but I can’t imagine he’ll be at full strength and we’ve seen what this team looks like without him in their 31-7 loss last week.

Even with him the Gamecocks look sluggish offensively, so how will they be able to keep up with a Missouri team that looks surprisingly good when they have the football? That should be the difference in this game, as the Beau Pribula to Kevin Coleman connection continues to shine against a South Carolina defense that is also disappointing at 62nd against the pass. With Sellers playing I think it’s fair for Mizzou to be laying just under double digits, but being able to move them to under a field goal at home in their SEC opener is great value.

Florida @ Miami -1: 6:30 PM CT on ABC

Is Miami elite? Well, it’s the regular season, so yes. They’re certainly good enough to win a home game against a bad Florida offense, and that’s all that I’m really asking of them with teasing this number down. I’m even having a tough time ignoring the transitive property of handicapping here, where Miami just stomped a USF team that beat Florida in the swamp the week before. What we’re getting out of this Hurricanes team is elite quarterback play and a still-evolving connection with an excellent receiver corps, and I don’t think it’s fully appreciated yet.

This will be the toughest defense Miami has seen yet, but a couple of deflating losses has the Gators circling the drain, especially with DJ Lagway proving he can’t compete with strong defenses. The most underappreciated aspect of the Canes is defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman finally bringing competency to that side of the ball, so a Gators team that won’t be able to produce much is going down in Miami tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-23 (-1.57 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.