Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/18

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Buffalo Bills First Half Team Total Over 16.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

This total doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. From a numbers standpoint, you have to factor in the first and second half spreads, which are heavily tilted. With Buffalo laying 7.5 in the first half but 12.5 for the game, the books are telling you that the Bills will be running it up in the first half, yet this sits below the key number of 17 points.

And here come the Dolphins, fresh off two horrific defensive performances, into a place where they never have any success even when it’s not freezing outside. It really is as bad as it looks for Miami, who gave up 20 first half points to Daniel Jones, and then 15 before halftime to Drake Maye. Nice start defensively, here’s a road game against the MVP and a rocket ship of an offense as your reward.

Buffalo should roll right over, around, and through a defensive unit that seems like it has no interest in being out there. The Bills are simply unstoppable at the things Miami can’t stop, and even when the Dolphins bring blitzes they’ve been terrible at getting home so Josh Allen is going to shred them. I think he does it early like in New York last week so they can coast in the second half, and seeing the Bills punt in the first half would actually be a surprise for me so I expect a massive number here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Devon Achane Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If Miami has any hope in this game they have to win time of possession by keeping the ball on the ground. That should be made easier by this Buffalo defense being pretty weak against the run, and having to play without Ed Oliver and Matt Milano tonight. So I think Achane could be in for a big game given lack of competition in the Miami backfield and a favorable matchup for him here.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Khalil Shakir Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

A big problem for Miami is they have no-names lining up at cornerback. With my expectation that Buffalo throws it early to establish a big lead, Shakir should be heavily involved. He’s so good at getting chunk plays of 10-15 yards, and against this defense those should be easy to find, so just a few of them gets him in position to clear this total.

NFL/MLB/WNBA (1 Unit) 3-Team Moneyline Parlay (+115; Odds via Caesars)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-800): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Do I recommend frequently adding -800 moneylines into a parlay? No, especially not just for S&G, but I’m doing it with a purpose here. If I’m putting together a moneyline parlay, I refuse to end up laying juice on it, which is what the next two legs of this would do if they were on their own. Buffalo is laying this kind of price for a reason, and -800 generally serves very little purpose, but they’re not losing this game so I’ll add it to boost the return here.

LA Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers (-195): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

The Brewers go for the sweep here as they push for the season’s best record, and what better pitcher to have on the mound. Quinn Priester isn’t necessarily elite on his own, but Milwaukee sure likes it when he gets the start, as they’ve now won 18 in a row behind him. With the Angels so bad against righties as I highlighted yesterday, I don’t see them doing much damage against Priester or the excellent Milwaukee bullpen.

The Brewers should do plenty of damage to Yusei Kikuchi though who’s been rough on the road, and they lead the league in batting average against lefties along with ranking top-5 in weighted runs created metrics. Then there’s the disaster that is the LA bullpen, so the Brewers should comfortably extend their crazy winning streak in Priester starts.

Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces (-365): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

So the Aces couldn’t get the WNBA record for most consecutive wins, which is a shame. But they could’ve, should’ve, and would’ve if not for blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead and Seattle having some incredible shot-making down the stretch. So in my opinion, they’re clearly the better team and just need to refocus after one bad quarter of basketball, and nobody needs to overreact that Vegas is in trouble here.

The Aces running Seattle out by 25 points in Game 1 of this series should be what we pay attention to, and the betting market certainly is as they’re laying a much heftier number tonight than in that game. So I’m not in a hurry to lay the 7.5 tonight which is outside of a couple key numbers, especially in an elimination scenario. But their superior talent, the best player on the planet in A’ja Wilson, and home court advantage should send the Aces back into the win column tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-25 (-1.34 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.