Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/17

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

After Philadelphia’s comeback win last night, the Brewers were not able to expand their lead for the top NL seed. So games like this remain must-haves, which impacts how Milwaukee approaches them, primarily in looking to use a more playoff-style gameplan. That means manufacturing runs and protecting leads, which should put them in position to create a win by multiple runs.

I’m not sure if they’ll necessarily do it right away against Jose Soriano, who is one of the toughest pitchers to predict. But eventually he will give way to one of the league’s worst bullpens that ranks 26th or below in ERA, WAR, FIP, and xFIP this season. With Brandon Woodruff on the mound for the Brewers, I’m feeling pretty confident that he can hold down an Angels team that’s dead last in baseball for batting average against righties, so expect Milwaukee to pull away in this one.

WNBA (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Lynx First Half Team Total Under 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

This total is a product of the Lynx being massive favorites on the road, a number that honestly feels a little too big, but I’ll take this different approach to fading it. Sunday’s blowout victory was a statement by Minnesota, but I don’t think the Valkyries will go quietly tonight. Golden State is too well-coached and too strong on the defensive end of the court to get triple digits dropped on them again here.

They should use their home-court advantage and ability to drag games into the mud as ways to slow the Lynx down. They’ve been generally successful at it, keeping Napheesa Collier relatively quiet during the season series, and Minnesota is just 2-3 over this total across all 5 meetings, averaging 40.8 points. So it’s a fair number from that standpoint, but pride and desperation out of the surprisingly good Valkyries should hold Minnesota under early tonight.

WNBA (0.25 Unit) Alyssa Thomas Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

I don’t think it’s too hyperbolic to think of Thomas as the Nikola Jokic of the WNBA, certainly not when looking at her do-it-all games and 8 triple-doubles this season. The Mercury are going to need everything she has in this elimination game, and I think she bounces back from a relatively poor performance in Game 1 of the series. She’s averaged 36.2 on this prop in 5 games against the Liberty this season, even though their strong defense has done a decent job against her. I think it would also be worthwhile to look at her triple-double prop if that’s available to you, but I’m liking her chances to stuff the stat sheet overall tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-26 (-1.79 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.