Locks
MLB (1 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+170; Odds via DraftKings)
Cade Horton Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-175): 5:40 PM CT on Marquee
Wednesday July 9th, that’s the last time Cade Horton gave up more than this number of earned runs. That’s a stretch of 10 straight starts as he has found a serious groove after a rough first couple of months this season. The Cubs manage him well, keeping him on a short leash with limited innings which helps limit the opportunity for runs allowed. It should only get easier today against the light-hitting Pirates, who are 27th or worse in every major hitting metric against righties this season.
Horton already shut them out in a 5.2 innings appearance this year, and Pittsburgh has only managed 2.3 runs per game their past 10 games. Plus, they’re starting Paul Skenes who they never give any run support to, so I don’t think they’re getting much off the Cubs starter here. The juice is just insane though and designed to keep you away from an easy win, so I’m adding it to a parlay with another heavily juiced prop that I love.
Chris Sale Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-135): 5:45 PM CT on MASN
Sale is a machine, logging exactly 9 strikeouts in all three of his starts since coming off the IL late last month. He’s done that against teams like the Mariners who have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties, and teams like the Cubs who have the seventh-lowest rate.
Well, the Nationals have the third-highest K rate against lefties at 25%, and in their at-bats against Sale that ticks up to 25.7% so he knows how to punch them out and his K’s-per-9 actually ticks up a little on the road this year. Again, juice is a major problem here and well outside my tolerance, but tying it to the Horton prop makes for a nice return here that I see as a good opportunity.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings Team Total Under 1.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on TBS
This is a system play, pure and simple, just not one that I quantify. But I’ve been around the block a few times, seen some things and some stuff (wouldn’t recommend it), and know when certain scenarios are about to unfold. The Phillies just wrapped up the AL East title last night, so that means celebrating in the clubhouse after the game with a few libations. And when that happens on the road in a city like LA with a robust nightlife scene, the infamous LA flu is going to play a role the next day. It doesn’t help that they’ll be seeing Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight, so I’ll look to the under for the groggy Phillies to start this game.
MLB/WNBA (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+105; Odds via BetMGM)
LA Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers (-250): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Wisconsin
The Brewers have cooled off from their insane run last month, but they’re still worth backing in some way to get key wins at home. Obviously at this price you need to get creative, but just asking them to win a home game against a bad opponent isn’t a big lift. Especially not with arguably their best starter taking the mound in Freddy Peralta, who will be looking to bounce back from a poor road outing.
At home though, Peralta is nails, owning a 1.72 ERA and .194 opponent on-base average so he should dominate the September callups for the Angels. And rookie LA starter Caden Dana will face his first truly good offensive opponent tonight, so he and the bad Angels bullpen should get thrashed on the way to a comfortable Brewers win.
Las Vegas Aces (-210) @ Seattle Storm: 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
Why stop now with the Aces? It’s now 17 straight wins, most of them by comfortable margins, and I think they notch number 18 tonight. It’s actually a spread that I’m not interested in laying, on or just outside of the key number of 5 points, and the Storm will be fighting for their lives on their home floor.
But in the end I don’t think it’s enough to overcome the juggernaut that is the Aces. It was another massive game for A’ja Wilson on Sunday, something that Seattle had mostly prevented this season against her. If she’s having those kind of games even against the solid defense of the Storm, there’s no stopping this team and they’ll close the series out tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-27 (-3.99 Units) – Recommend: Don’t Even Bother
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.