Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/14

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Buffalo Bills EVEN @ NY Jets: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

It’s teaser time for the NFL with Week 1 overreactions being built into a lot of lines, and teasers being able to negate that steam. And the first leg I’m going after in this biggest teaser is one where I get to have Superman on my side. Oops, I just overreacted to Josh Allen’s performance in Week 1 a little bit there, but he’s still the difference in this game. I’m actually hesitant to lay a touchdown with Buffalo in this spot, on the road against a divisional opponent, but I’m not shy about asking them to just win. The Jets defense has not been what we remember from the Robert Saleh era, so Allen and the Bills should be able to carve them up enough to come away with a win.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals -1: 3:05 PM CT on CBS

Yeah, I’d consider the Cardinals laying a touchdown to be an overreaction just from a macro standpoint, even though I think they’ll make noise this season. Consider the opponent though and it makes more sense, as Carolina still looks like they belong at the bottom of the NFL barrel. The Panthers remain the league’s easiest team to run on, so the two-headed monster of James Conner and Trey Benson should run ragged through that defense, not to mention a healthy Kyler Murray’s running ability. Arizona is also making quietly solid strides on defense, so a strong effort on that side of the ball plus an unstoppable run game equals a win in my book.

NFL/WNBA (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys +0.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Let’s all be honest about what we watched in the Thursday night opener last week. The Cowboys should’ve won that game, but because they didn’t they’re not laying a massive number against an incompetent opponent. It’s still a sizable spread, although in a nice range to tease them down and ask Dallas to just beat a divisional foe they’ve dominated lately. Dallas is 9-1 straight up against the Giants this decade, with the only loss back in 2020 after Dak Prescott had been lost for the season. But what I call “Dak Ball” is back in Big D, and I know when my team is in a mode that will take care of bad opponents at home, so this should be an easy win for them.

Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces EVEN: 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

A little surprisingly, the Aces and Storm have split the season series 2-2, but three of those meetings came before Vegas flipped the switch. That switch sent them on this 16-game winning streak that they look to carry into the postseason, and I have to back them to get the win here. Seattle really started to struggle once we hit August, particularly on defense where they started allowing a very high field goal percentage. The bottom line is they’re just not talented enough to upset the Aces on the road in this spot, even though they’ve done a good job of containing A’ja Wilson this season. Vegas is playing too good of all-around basketball, so I have to add them as a teaser leg to complement all the NFL action.

NFL (0.5 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -5.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Overreaction week goes wild in this one as the Ravens are laying by far the biggest number on the board in a game they need. It would not be unheard of for Baltimore to punish the Browns for their own mistakes on Sunday night, but I’m not laying two touchdowns with a team that has never been able to hold two-score leads. Less than a touchdown suits me just fine though, as I think the Ravens exploit the Cleveland defense in ways the Bengals couldn’t last week, particularly neutralizing Myles Garrett with Lamar Jackson’s wheels. Baltimore’s defense won’t be vulnerable the way it was last week against Josh Allen, so a beatdown could be coming and I like being able to shave 7 points off the needed margin.

LA Rams @ Tennessee Titans +12.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I think the Titans are undervalued here, and being able to add 7 points of padding to the cushion makes it a very attractive number. You’d have to be crazy to lay this kind of number with the Rams on the road, think about it that way. Especially given Matthew Stafford’s lingering back issues and him now playing behind an offensive line dealing with injuries to 3 starters. Backing a rookie quarterback can be scary, but Cam Ward seemed to wake up a bit last week and that should carry over into his first home start. This projects as an ugly, low-scoring game where catching a ton of points is great natural value, so I’m taking the big number with what should be a live dog.

Buffalo Bills/NY Jets Over 40.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Part of the Bills pulling away for a win in this game should be putting up a big number on that Jets defense that’s a shell of its past self. The Jets just allowed an elderly ayahuasca enthusiast to put up 34 points on them in a dink-and-dunk offense where there was no stretching of the field vertically. Buffalo can at least push the ball downfield even if it’s not their preferred style, and they also can lean on Josh Allen’s mobility. But I think the Jets run right through the Buffalo defense pretty frequently today, as Ed Oliver will be out against the 3-headed monster of runners when you include Justin Fields. That will allow the Jets to put up plenty of points themselves, and send this over an adjusted number that’s well below the opening total.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Brenton Strange Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit - Brenton Strange Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)

1 Unit – Kayshon Boutte Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Ricky Pearsall Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Malik Nabers Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Breece Hall Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Justin Fields Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Braelon Allen Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – RJ Harvey Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)

0.75 Unit – James Conner Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Trey Benson Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)

0.75 Unit – Drake London Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-23 (-7.19 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.