Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/13

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) California First Half Team Total Under 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN

This possibly elite defense for the Gophers takes to the road, and I think they’ll be able to have some early success tonight. Pitching a shutout against poor Northwestern State last week is not to be taken too seriously, but I still believe they have a top-tier defensive unit this season. They would’ve shut Buffalo out in the first half of the opener if the wildest interception you’ve ever seen didn’t set the Bulls up inside the 10-yard line, so this defense is fierce to start games.

I’m not a believer in the Cal offense with Fernando Mendoza having transferred out, and their schedule thus far should not be taken seriously either. The Bears have not been able to run the ball like they should, and have been pretty bad on third down, so an aggressive Gopher defense should limit them. I also think Minnesota plays this one tight and slow to start out given the body clock considerations, so a lower-scoring first half should be coming in general and should particularly apply to Cal here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) South Alabama/Auburn Over 54 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:45 AM CT on SEC Network

I have to follow the money on this one since sharps have been all over this total but it’s still at a very reasonable number. There’s as much as a 9:1 split of over versus under handle at some books, but the total is only creeping up and still sits below 56 which is the most important key number in this range.

I think both of these teams will be able to score with relative ease, which is what smart money is seeing as well. Auburn finally has their excellent quarterback in Jackson Arnold, and as long as he’s not focused on next week’s revenge trip to Oklahoma, the Tigers should score in bunches again. South Alabama has been very soft on defense in two home games, so a trip to Jordan-Hare will really expose them.

But the Jaguars have been impressive offensively, especially last week in putting up a lot of points despite two turnovers and poor third down numbers. If Auburn is coasting late with an eye on next week, the Jaguars will be able to add points that might decide this total if it’s even in doubt. But I suspect Auburn putting it on an in-state little brother school will do most of the work to get it over the total, so I’m joining the sharps on this play.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Villanova +48.5 @ Penn State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

The one thing you have to wonder about when Penn State doesn’t cover in two straight games against cupcakes is how much money James Franklin just lost. I kid, sort of, but I’m not kidding about not being able to do it with this Penn State team anymore. They’re overrated, plain and simple, with a defense that looks soft and will get exposed soon, plus an offense that is struggling to move the ball like it should given their two-headed monster at running back.

Speaking of getting exposed soon, the Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon next, so I question how much of their focus will be on FCS Villanova today. I certainly don’t expect them to be terribly focused late in this game when the back door will be wide open, and PSU has let a bad team in once already this season. This number sitting suspiciously below 7 touchdowns is also getting my attention, and while I might eat my words I’m finally willing to go against the longtime trend of Franklin making the effort to cover big spreads.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon St @ Texas Tech -13.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 2:30 PM CT on FOX

I’m getting more and more used to the idea that Tech is pretty good with all their mercenary talent that was brought in, certainly against poor competition. The Red Raiders have absolutely carved up two outmatched opponents in Pine Bluff and Kent State, both of which are a far cry from anything they’ll see in conference play, but honestly so is Oregon State. Last year the Beavers couldn’t stop anything, and that’s carried over to this season with two weak defensive performances against suspect competition.

I keep saying that Texas Tech needs to stomp opponents to satisfy boosters and justify the massive NIL collective, and now that they have an opportunity to do it on national TV I think they’ll still be focused on that to start this game. Their offense is objectively talented and deep, so if the pedal is down they’ll be able to score at will against a bad Beaver defense. I’m looking at the first half specifically though because things get real for Tech next week when they travel to Utah, so this seems like a situation where they should step on OSU early and coast late.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) USC/Purdue Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on CBS

Speaking of things I keep saying heading into Week 3 of the season, I’m still married to the idea that Lincoln Riley is looking to make statements with his offense whenever he can. New quarterback Jayden Maiava has been excellent through two starts against weak competition, and now he and Riley get to show off on national TV against a conference opponent. Don’t let two games against awful competition fool you with Purdue either, they’re ripe for getting shredded by the high-octane Trojans today.

The Boilermakers didn’t do much to improve a defense that gave up the fourth-most points per game in the country last season, so if USC wants to build on their 132 points through 2 games, they should have no trouble. But Purdue still has an excellent running game led by Devin Mockobee, and USC has shown plenty of vulnerability on the ground as tackling is once again an issue. I think the Boilers contribute enough while the Trojans show out, leading to another easy USC over.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) SMU/Missouri State Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN

Last week I talked about how SMU has been getting away with a lot of luck defensively and was due for that to bite them. They proceeded to go out and get exposed by Baylor’s excellent quarterback, and I think more defensive breakdowns are coming in this game. Missouri State is very capable offensively behind a great pocket passer in Jacob Clark, who is finally syncing with his weapons after losing his top targets in the offseason.

I think the Bears will be able to throw it very effectively in their first home game as an FBS program, especially against the country’s second-most forgiving pass defense. But SMU will be out to make a statement here after last week’s OT loss, and should put up a big day on the scoreboard. Missouri State can’t stop anything at either the FCS or FBS level, so an angry Mustangs squad behind Kevin Jennings should go off. But this might be a more back-and-forth affair than anyone wants to admit, so I really like the over here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Texas State/Arizona State Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on TNT

Some of the concerns and frustrations that Kenny Dillingham was ranting about this summer seem to be showing up for ASU, but this team was still done dirty by voters. A last-minute road loss in SEC country should not knock you from #12 in the country to out of the top-25, which illustrates the ridiculousness of the polls these days, but I’m sure the Sun Devils noticed the shade. I have to assume that motivates them, and Dillingham, to put it on someone this week.

So a porous defense coming to Tempe might be just what they need to get back on track with a statement win, and I think that creates a lot of points in this game. Texas State won’t be able to stop a motivated ASU offense, as they haven’t stopped much against G5 opponents thus far. But the Bobcats play very fast, can beat you on the ground or through the air, and the ASU defense is not what it was last season. It might be in garbage time, it might not, but I fully expect Texas State to put up a few scores here while ASU should score at will, sending this over a total that’s attracted a lot of sharp action.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-22 (-4.89 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.