Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/12

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Colgate @ Syracuse -31.5: 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

This is the perfect week for an FCS cupcake to visit Syracuse. Well, not for the cupcake, but for anyone wanting to lay a big number with the Orange in this game it should set up perfectly. Syracuse head coach Fran Brown is going to demand perfection from his team tonight, and I think they respond with a beatdown of Colgate who really won’t be able to stop anything.

Brown had his Orange, pun intended, running gassers in full pads after their OT win against UConn last week, punishment for a lack of effort. So they should bring it tonight, and with the pedal down they’ll be able to run it up against a Colgate squad that hasn’t even stopped FCS foes so far this season. Being able to move the number below the 5-touchdown mark is advantageous in what I see as an impending blowout, maybe on the level of when Cuse beat the Raiders by 65 a couple years ago.

Kansas State @ Arizona +7.5: 8:00 PM CT on FOX

Similar to the previous game, this is one where I’m tempted to just play the number straight, but getting some extra cushion is too good to pass up. For this one, I just have to ask why Kansas State deserves to be favored over anyone right now, much less in a conference road game. What they deserve is to be 0-3 on the year, and I just wonder what this line would be if not for their miraculous comeback against FCS North Dakota.

Both the offense and defense are struggling for K-State, and it doesn’t get any easier here with key injuries at running back and offensive line. I don’t think they’ll be able to attack an excellent secondary for Arizona, and I also think they’ll get gashed by an improving UA offense. With offensive coordinator Seth Doege coming to Tucson this season, QB Noah Fifita has the up-tempo style he needs to succeed, especially against a vulnerable defense. That makes this a game where Arizona probably has an edge at home against a struggling team, and getting more than a touchdown makes for great value here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on MNNT

The price on this is something I can’t pass up with Brandon Pfaadt getting another road start. It’s a stark difference between home and road for the Arizona righty, and his 7.13 ERA with a .301 opponent on-base average in road games makes him easy to target here. While the Twins can run very hot and cold on offense, they certainly have the potential to jump on a lot of pitchers and it doesn’t take much to get to Pfaadt. He’s allowed opponents to get over this total in 6 of his past 8 road starts, and in 9 of 14 total this season, so look for the Twins to do the same on a beautiful day for hitting at Target Field.

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+115; Odds via Fanduel)

St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-184): 7:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

The Brewers are in need of a reset after a sweep at the hands of the red-hot Rangers this week. But they had a day off yesterday, and nothing resets things quite like a guy who never loses. It’s getting a little scary with Quinn Priester and the 17-game winning streak Milwaukee is on in his starts, but I’m sticking with him in this spot.

One of those 17 wins was a dominant home start against this Cardinals team, which just played itself out of contention in Seattle this week. I think that makes this very simple: back the pitcher that never loses with his team in contention for the #1 seed against a deflated opponent. That opponent is trotting out Andre Pallante who the Brewers have tagged for a .305 average and .947 OPS, so I see Milwaukee getting back on track tonight.

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-260): 8:40 PM CT on COLR

A second unplayable moneyline goes well together with the first, and should be an easy way to close this parlay. The Padres are also very much in contention to overtake the Dodgers for the NL West crown, and they have to have games like this one. It certainly helps that they’re 8-2 against Colorado this season, and they should be able to jump all over the Rockies starter tonight.

Tanner Gordon is like the Bizarro World starter for Colorado: far worse on the road than at hitter-friendly Coors, posting a 9.33 ERA and .376 opponent on-base average in road games. That didn’t stop him from giving up 6 runs at home to this Padres team just 5 days ago, and I would expect San Diego to jump on him again. JP Sears starting for the Padres is a non-factor to me with how awful the Rockies are at the plate away from home, and how good the San Diego bullpen is, so I’m seeing them extending their dominance over Colorado tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-24 (-8.37 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.