Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/10

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream/Connecticut Sun Under 158.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Peachtree TV

The WNBA playoff field might be set, but seeding isn’t quite finalized yet and that should be important to the Dream here. They still have a shot at the second overall seed if the Aces trip up tomorrow night, so they should take this game seriously despite the Sun being pretty uncompetitive against them all season. What Atlanta takes the most seriously though is defense, and they have a fully healthy roster of excellent defenders to shut Connecticut down again tonight. This is only a 1 point adjustment from Monday’s total that easily went under, which I don’t think is enough of a move, so I’ll back the under again here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/LA Angels Over 9 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on MNNT

Who’s going to score 12 runs today? The Angels responded to Minnesota’s 12-spot from Monday with one of their own last night, and those games had pitching matchups that inspired slightly more confidence than this one tonight. Taj Bradley is showing the Twins front office why you should never accept anything from the Rays, as he’s compiled a 7.20 ERA in a Twins uniform.

I think the free-swinging Angels can get to Bradley and the minor-leaguers in the Minnesota bullpen pretty easily. But they have their own issues with Joel Soriano, who finally returned to earth in his last start and has been atrocious at home all year with a 5.90 ERA. The LA bullpen is also about as bad as it gets, and the wind is blowing out on a warm afternoon in la-la-land, so I see plenty of runs again here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+215; Odds via DraftKings)

Jake Irvin Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125): 5:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

This is an easy number to attack, but just a little bit above where I want to be for laying juice so I’ll use it as a parlay leg. You can’t argue with the actual prop total itself though, as Irvin has been a machine for allowing teams to rack up runs. His past 7 starts have all gone over this number while he’s compiled a 9.87 ERA in that stretch.

He’s only gone under this number twice since early July, and his road numbers have been atrocious with a 6.19 ERA. Irvin hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, but they’re one of the best teams in baseball at cashing in baserunners so I expect them to put up plenty against this very vulnerable starter.

Chris Sale Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132): 6:15 PM CT on Marquee

Sale has come back from the IL with a vengeance, posting two excellent starts in a row where he had 9 strikeouts in both. That has boosted his per-start average to 7.8 strikeouts a game, and his K’s-per-9 is sitting at an impressive 11.65 this season.

He’s also gone over this number in 13 of his 17 starts on the year, but this total is held down by the Cubs being pretty good at avoiding strikeouts against lefties. Those are season-long numbers though, and I’m not impressed with where this Cubs offense is right now. So if Sale is on a mission, which is unfortunately too little too late for the Braves, I see him getting over this much lower number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-24 (-9.1 Units) – Recommend: Run For Your Life

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.