Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/09

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) A’Ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on Vegas 34

Wilson is just a machine, and I can’t in good conscience do anything but take her over against an awful defensive team. She started going off with regularity shortly after the All-Star break, and has averaged 26.8 PPG her last 16 games. And within those 16 games, if you isolate the nights she logs more than 30 minutes, that scoring average jumps to 30.1 PPG and she’s 10-2 over this prop total. She dropped a very casual 31 against the Sky and their poor defense on Sunday night, making up for only 18 points in the meeting at Chicago two weeks ago. If she’s still looking to prove that game to be a fluke and make noise in the MVP chase, then surpassing the expectations of her points prop is a good look.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Over 90.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I keep hammering home the point that this Mercury team at full strength is as dangerous as anyone in the league. They’ve only been at full strength once in the three meetings with LA, dropping 92 in that game. Phoenix has still averaged 88.7 in those three meetings against the league’s second-most forgiving defense, and it’s not like the Sparks are suddenly going to slow their tempo and start caring on defense. So I think the Mercury, who will be in a foul mood after taking a bad loss in Connecticut over the weekend, should jump all over LA here and hang a big number with their roster fully healthy and scary.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 9:05 PM CT on NBCS-CA

If it’s the Red Sox, and if it’s a lefty, I’m looking to attack in the hits allowed market. Boston being without Roman Anthony right now is not ideal, but this lineup is still more than capable of getting to an average pitcher. That’s what Jeffrey Springs is despite some flashes this season, but a lot of those came early in the season and/or have been on the road. At home, Springs has an elevated WHIP, ERA, and opponent on-base average, plus he’s gone over this prop total in three straight starts against fairly pedestrian offenses. Boston still has plenty of pop against lefties as a top-5 offense in every important metric, so I’ll back them at an advantageous price to pile up some early hits here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-23 (-8.8 Units) – Recommend: Run For Your Life

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.