Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 09/08

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

In all honesty you probably shouldn’t bet this. Hell, I might not even bet this because obviously I do not have the pulse of the league yet. But I can’t ignore that the Vikings are trotting out what is functionally a rookie at quarterback, to start his first game on the road, and it’s a divisional matchup where the home team is catching points. That’s the triple whammy of big reasons to look at the Bears here, as all those factors have historically said the Vikings are in trouble tonight. A rookie head coach for the Bears along with Caleb Williams’ issues don’t inspire the most confidence either, but I have to make the system play on the divisional home dog and fade a rookie quarterback.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Caleb Williams Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – D’Andre Swift Over 73.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – JJ McCarthy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – JJ McCarthy Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Aaron Nola Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on NBCS-PH

Interesting pitching matchup in this game, and more on the other side of it below, but let’s start with Nola here. I think he might be broken, as things have gone horribly for him since coming back from injury just under a month ago, but lack of pitching options means the Phillies keep sending him out. He’s posted an 8.38 ERA and gone over this earned runs prop in 3 of the 4 starts since returning, plus he now has a 6.55 ERA and .304 opponent on-base average in home games for the year. The Mets have scored a lot of runs against Philadelphia this season, averaging 5.9 per game and they tagged Nola for 4 earned in his lone start against them back in April, so I think a repeat is coming here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

If you haven’t gotten a chance to see McLean pitch yet in his 4 starts at the big league level, hurry up because he’s the real deal. He’s already dominated the Phillies in a start two weeks ago, striking out 6 in that game against a lineup that’s not very strikeout prone. McLean has gone over this total in all of his starts, and at this price point I have to jump in again.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports MW

The Mariners have some difficult things to overcome in this game, but I have to take a shot on them being able to do it. This is terrible Malinsky Special situation for them after playing in Atlanta yesterday and not getting any time off from the travel to the opposite corner of the country. They also just scored 10 and 18 runs the past two games so natural regression is coming for them at some point. But I have to fade Miles Mikolas on the road, as the Cardinals righty owns a 6.79 ERA and .327 opponent on-base average away from home. He also has allowed this Seattle lineup to rake for cumulative .359 average and 1.000 OPS in his career against their bats, so a low total and good price have me jumping in.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies/LA Dodgers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on COLR

There’s some question about whether Emmet Sheehan or Tyler Glasnow will start for the Dodgers tonight, but I don’t see that mattering. Either one of them can dominate this Rockies lineup that’s dead last in everything away from home, especially with both of them having great numbers at Dodger Stadium this season. What’s really attractive to me about the under here, aside from the plus-juice price, is the Dodgers being unlikely to contribute much either tonight.

They’re in a brutal Malinsky Special spot after flying home from Baltimore yesterday with no time off, and honestly if you want to sprinkle the Colorado moneyline I can’t blame you. That’s because of LA’s serious struggles lately, which have mostly come at the plate, and they actually face a tough pitcher here. Chase Dollander couldn’t get more wide in his home/road splits, with a 9.98 ERA and .337 opponent on-base average in Coors, but 3.64 and .212 numbers, respectively, on the road. Dollander has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 9 road starts, so continued excellence from him will help keep this under the early total.

Degenerates

WNBA Atlanta Dream First Half Team Total Under 44.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Peachtree TV

I just think this number is a little too high, and trying to set a trap based on Atlanta’s recent performances. This 4-game winning streak for the Dream has seen them put up some big numbers against weak defenses, including 93 points against the Sun who they’ll see again here. But in three meetings with Connecticut this season, the Dream have never eclipsed this first half total, scoring 37, 35, and 42 points. They were also mostly healthy for all those games, but might be without Jordin Canada and Allisha Gray tonight, so I see the potential for another slow start against an inflated number.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-21 (-6.5 Units) – Recommend: Run For Your Life

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.